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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Friday.
Issued 0531z, 28th May 2007. By the end of the working week temperatures will be back to average (or slightly above) across most areas, as warmer air moves in from the Atlantic. It's now looking like all areas will see rain at times over the weekend, with southern and eastern areas seeing the least. Into next week things will become warmer and drier as pressure rises. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif Low pressure covers France, leading to brisk northerlies across the UK. The winds ease and back NW'ly tomorrow as the low moves away to the east. By Wednesday a weak ridge covers the UK, leading to SE'lies over Northern Ireland, NW'lies for eastern England and light winds elsewhere. On Thursday the UK lies under a col, with lows to the west and east. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a strong jet across the North Atlantic and much of the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a marked trough to the west and a ridge to the NE. MetO shows the upper trough further west, while ECM brings a secondary upper low over the UK, with a deeper trough west of the UK. GEM is similar to ECM, while NGP shows an upper trough over the UK. At the surface GFS brings a trough over the UK, with SE'lies ahead of it (over Scotland) and SW'lies elsewhere. MetO shows a similar setup, albeit with the trough over northern England instead. ECM shows southerlies and SW'lies, with the trough over southern parts of the UK. GEM has a low over the Midlands and light winds for most, while NGP centres a low over SW Scotland, with easterlies to the north and SW'lies for the rest of the UK. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows an upper ridge building to the south, leading to a "plume" over France. Strong southerlies cover the UK on day 6 with a deep low to the west, followed by lighter southerlies on day 7 as high pressure builds to the east. GFS brings a deep low to the NW on day 6 and SW'lies cover the UK as a result. By day 7 high pressure builds to the SW, leading to lighter WSW'lies. Looking further afield Day 8 on the ECM shows southerlies with a high to the east. A trough crosses Ireland on day 9, still with southerlies for most. By day 10 the trough becomes a low over the North Sea, leaving much of the UK under northerlies. GFS shows high pressure over the UK on day 8, before a col moves over the UK on day 9. By day 10 the UK lies under a slack northerly flow, with low pressure to the east. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles show warmer weather on the way next week. |
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