uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1   Report Post  
Old May 28th 07, 06:33 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2006
Posts: 124
Default Today's model interpretation (28/05/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Friday.
Issued 0531z, 28th May 2007.

By the end of the working week temperatures will be back to average (or
slightly above) across most areas, as warmer air moves in from the Atlantic.
It's now looking like all areas will see rain at times over the weekend,
with southern and eastern areas seeing the least. Into next week things will
become warmer and drier as pressure rises.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Low pressure covers France, leading to brisk northerlies across the UK. The
winds ease and back NW'ly tomorrow as the low moves away to the east. By
Wednesday a weak ridge covers the UK, leading to SE'lies over Northern
Ireland, NW'lies for eastern England and light winds elsewhere. On Thursday
the UK lies under a col, with lows to the west and east.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet across the North Atlantic and much of
the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a marked trough to the west and a ridge
to the NE. MetO shows the upper trough further west, while ECM brings a
secondary upper low over the UK, with a deeper trough west of the UK. GEM is
similar to ECM, while NGP shows an upper trough over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings a trough over the UK, with SE'lies ahead of it
(over Scotland) and SW'lies elsewhere. MetO shows a similar setup, albeit
with the trough over northern England instead. ECM shows southerlies and
SW'lies, with the trough over southern parts of the UK. GEM has a low over
the Midlands and light winds for most, while NGP centres a low over SW
Scotland, with easterlies to the north and SW'lies for the rest of the UK.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows an upper ridge building to the south, leading to a "plume" over
France. Strong southerlies cover the UK on day 6 with a deep low to the
west, followed by lighter southerlies on day 7 as high pressure builds to
the east.
GFS brings a deep low to the NW on day 6 and SW'lies cover the UK as a
result. By day 7 high pressure builds to the SW, leading to lighter
WSW'lies.

Looking further afield
Day 8 on the ECM shows southerlies with a high to the east. A trough crosses
Ireland on day 9, still with southerlies for most. By day 10 the trough
becomes a low over the North Sea, leaving much of the UK under northerlies.
GFS shows high pressure over the UK on day 8, before a col moves over the UK
on day 9. By day 10 the UK lies under a slack northerly flow, with low
pressure to the east.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show warmer weather on the way next week.



Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules

Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Today's model interpretation (10/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 10th 03 07:11 AM
Today's model interpretation (9/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 9th 03 07:13 AM
Today's model interpretation (8/7/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 8th 03 07:16 AM
Today's model interpretation (7/6/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 5th 03 07:15 AM
Today's model interpretation (5/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 5th 03 06:10 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 02:15 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2025 Weather Banter.
The comments are property of their posters.
 

About Us

"It's about Weather"

 

Copyright © 2017