Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Monday.
Issued 0536z, 31st May 2007.

High pressure will be in charge for the first half of next week, with all
areas seeing drier conditions than of late. Although the winds won't be from
a warm source, under largely clear skies temperatures should still reach the
"warm" category in many areas, although eastern areas exposed to the onshore
breeze may stay cooler. The models then suggest the warm weather continuing
towards the weekend, although possibly with showers moving up from the south
as the high declines.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Lows pressure lies to the NW, leading to southerlies and SE'lies over the
UK. By tomorrow low pressure covers the English Channel, ledaing to
easterlies and SE'lies across the UK. Saturday sees a trough over western
areas of the UK (with SSE'lies) and light winds for the eastern half. By
Sunday England and Wales lie under a ridge, while a trough over Ireland
brings southerlies and SE'lies elsewhere.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a marked trough to the west and a large ridge over
the UK and most of Europe. At the 500hPa level there's a weak upper trough
over the UK, while MetO has an upper col over the UK. ECM shows a ridge over
northern areas of the UK, while GEM brings a shallow upper low over southern
England. NGP shows lower heights and a ridge over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings northerlies for most with a ridge over Ireland.
MetO shows a high over Scotland and Ireland with northerlies elsewhere,
while ECM brings NE'lies for all with highs to the NNE and SW. GEM places
high pressure to the south of Ireland, with NW'lies for most. Finally NGP
has a high to the north and NNE'lies as a result.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows NE'lies on days 6 and 7 as high pressure persists to the north.
GFS brings light winds for all as high pressure crosses the UK on day 6,
followed by NE'lies for most on day 7 as the high moves over Scotland.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 bring increasingly light NE'lies over the UK as the high to the
north slowly declines.
GFS shows NE'lies on day 8 and ENE'lies on day 9, with pressure falling over
France. By day 10 a deep low lies tothe SW, leading to southerlies and
SE'lies for the UK.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles still show a warm spell on the way.

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 31 May 2007, Darren Prescott
wrote :

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Monday.
Issued 0536z, 31st May 2007.

High pressure will be in charge for the first half of next week, with
all areas seeing drier conditions than of late. Although the winds
won't be from a warm source

I much prefer warm weather from a cool source, if that makes any
sense...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

In article ,
Paul Hyett writes:
I much prefer warm weather from a cool source, if that makes any
sense...

I think it does, actually, in that I would think that the humidity is
likely to be lower.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
news
I much prefer warm weather from a cool source, if that makes any sense...


Is that because its usually cleaner?
Dave R

On May 31, 8:46 am, Paul Hyett wrote:
In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 31 May 2007, Darren Prescott
wrote :

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Monday.
Issued 0536z, 31st May 2007.

High pressure will be in charge for the first half of next week, with
all areas seeing drier conditions than of late. Although the winds
won't be from a warm source

I much prefer warm weather from a cool source, if that makes any
sense...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)


I guess Tuesday before last (22nd) was like that - and it just shows
what effect the sun and lack of wind can have on the temperatures. The
Monday (21st) was decidedly cool (under total cloud cover), so it
looks like the airmass was inherently not particularly warm. That
didn't stop the temperature reaching the low 20s on the Tuesday
though. May is probably the month above all others where the presence
or absence of sun, wind, heavy cloud and rain influence the
temperatures perhaps more than the air mass.

Nick

On Thu, 31 May 2007 10:49:49 +0100, John Hall
wrote:

In article ,
Paul Hyett writes:
I much prefer warm weather from a cool source, if that makes any
sense...

I think it does, actually, in that I would think that the humidity is
likely to be lower.

Isn't that the most common mechanism - cool dry air is heated
adiabatically when it sinks to the surface in a high pressure region.

In America cold air from the northwest passes over the Rockies and
loses moisture due to precipitation when it rises. Then it heads south
and sinks, thereby warming up.


--

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economic, social, and political agenda of privileged groups that
dominate the domestic society and the state. The media serve this
purpose in many ways: through the selection of topics, distribution
of concerns, framing of issues, filtering of information, emphasis
and tone, and by keeping debate within the bounds of acceptable premises."
-- Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 31 May 2007, Citizen Bob wrote
:
I much prefer warm weather from a cool source, if that makes any
sense...

I think it does, actually, in that I would think that the humidity is
likely to be lower.

Isn't that the most common mechanism - cool dry air is heated
adiabatically when it sinks to the surface in a high pressure region.

In America cold air from the northwest passes over the Rockies and
loses moisture due to precipitation when it rises. Then it heads south
and sinks, thereby warming up.

You mean the fohn effect?

That is the cause of many of the UK's record high winter temperatures.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)