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Old June 1st 07, 06:57 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (1/06/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0556z, 31st May 2007.

The latter half of the working week will see high pressure to the north and
NE'lies for most. Western areas in particular will see warm conditions, but
apart from localised areas near the east coast it won't be cold anywhere (at
least by day). Into the weekend there are signs of less settled conditions
moving up from the south as the high declines.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A col covers the UK, with light winds for most. A col persists over England
and Wales tomorrow, while Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under
southerlies from a low to the west. There's little change on Sunday and by
Monday a ridge moves over Ireland, leading to NNW'lies for all.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows the pattern having regressed from the last few
weeks. There's now a deep trough the west and the whole of Europe (except
parts of Iceland) lies under a large ridge. At the 500hPa level there's an
upper high to the NE, with a ridge over the UK. MetO shows a similar
picture, as does ECM. GEM brings a ridge over much of the UK as does NGP.
At the surface GFS brings NE'lies for most, with high pressure to the north.
MetO shows NNE'lies, as does ECM; both have a high to the north. GEM and NGP
show NNE'lies and NE'lies respectively.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows NE'lies persisting as the high declines to the north on days 6 and
7.
GFS shows pressure falling to the south on days 6 and 7, leading to ENE'lies
for all.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 on the ECM bring a ridge, a col and a trough respectively for
the UK. Winds are initially light but by day 10 SE'lies pick up across
Scotland, with NW'lies for southern parts of the UK.
GFS shows low pressure stalling to the SW. Day 8 sees a weak trough and
light winds for all, followed by a col on day 9. By day 10 NE'lies appear
across Scotland from a Greenland High, with light winds elsewhere.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show warm weather out to day 10 and beyond.


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