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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0556z, 31st May 2007. The latter half of the working week will see high pressure to the north and NE'lies for most. Western areas in particular will see warm conditions, but apart from localised areas near the east coast it won't be cold anywhere (at least by day). Into the weekend there are signs of less settled conditions moving up from the south as the high declines. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif A col covers the UK, with light winds for most. A col persists over England and Wales tomorrow, while Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under southerlies from a low to the west. There's little change on Sunday and by Monday a ridge moves over Ireland, leading to NNW'lies for all. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows the pattern having regressed from the last few weeks. There's now a deep trough the west and the whole of Europe (except parts of Iceland) lies under a large ridge. At the 500hPa level there's an upper high to the NE, with a ridge over the UK. MetO shows a similar picture, as does ECM. GEM brings a ridge over much of the UK as does NGP. At the surface GFS brings NE'lies for most, with high pressure to the north. MetO shows NNE'lies, as does ECM; both have a high to the north. GEM and NGP show NNE'lies and NE'lies respectively. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows NE'lies persisting as the high declines to the north on days 6 and 7. GFS shows pressure falling to the south on days 6 and 7, leading to ENE'lies for all. Looking further afield Days 8 to 10 on the ECM bring a ridge, a col and a trough respectively for the UK. Winds are initially light but by day 10 SE'lies pick up across Scotland, with NW'lies for southern parts of the UK. GFS shows low pressure stalling to the SW. Day 8 sees a weak trough and light winds for all, followed by a col on day 9. By day 10 NE'lies appear across Scotland from a Greenland High, with light winds elsewhere. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles show warm weather out to day 10 and beyond. |
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