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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Saturday.
Issued 0537z, 20th June 2007. The first half of next week will see NW'lies for all as pressure falls to the NE and a high remains to the west. Showers will form in the cold air aloft and most areas will see them; however between the showers there will be strong sunshine (especially so in the south and east). Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm A deep low lies to the SW and a trough covers England and Wales. To the north winds are easterlies, with southerlies or SW'lies following behind. The trough covers Scotland tomorrow, with southerlies or SE'lies elsewhere. By Friday the parent low moves over Wales, leading to northerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland with southerlies elsewhere. By Saturday the low moves over the North Sea, leaving NW'lies for all. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jet stream chart shows the UK under a trough, with a ridge to the west. At the 500hPa level there's a low over the UK and a ridge to the WNW. MetO also shows a ridge but this time the low is to the east. ECM shows a deeper trough over the UK with a ridge to the west, as does GEM. At the surface GFS shows NW'lies and WNW'lies with a low to the NE and a high to the WNW. MetO brings a ridge to the west instead, with NW'lies for all. ECM shows westerlies and a trough for the UK. GEM also brings a trough over the UK, with NW'lies to the north and westerlies to the south. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows an upper low stalling over the North Sea. Day 6 sees NW'lies for all and there's more of the same on day 7. GFS moves the trough eastwards on day 6, leading to NW'lies for all. On day 7 the winds become WNW'lies as the ridge to the west declines. Looking further afield Days 8 to 10 on the ECM show NW'lies for all, with low pressure filling to the NE. GFS shows a trough and NW'lies on day 8, followed by a weak ridge and WNW'lies on day 9. By day 10 the winds become southerlies and SW'lies, due to a low to the west. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles show 5 more days of average conditions, followed by a cool spell. |
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