Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Monday.
Issued 0520z, 21st June 2007.

NW'lies will affect the UK for the first half of next week, with low
pressure over Scandinavia and a slow-moving ridge to the west. All areas
will be at risk of showers, especially in the north and west.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
Low pressure covers Ireland, leading to southerlies and SSE'lies for much of
the UK. The low fills over the Celtic Sea tomorrow, introducing NE'lies to
Scotland and Northern Ireland with southerlies elsewhere. By Saturday the
low moves away to the NE, leaving NW'lies over the UK. Sunday sees a
secondary low over the North Sea, leading to Scotland and Northern Ireland
seeing northerlies. Elsewhere winds are westerlies.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jet stream chart shows a trough over the UK and a weak ridge to the
west. At the 500hPa level there's an upper low over the North Sea and a
ridge to the west. MetO has the low further east, over Germany, while ECM
places the low over the Netherlands. GEM has a much larger upper low, this
time centred over the North Sea.
At the surface GFS shows moderate NW'lies with a low over Denmark. MetO
shows a similar setup, as does ECM - both show NW'lies for the UK and a low
near Denmark. GEM has a low to the north of Denmark and a mixture of
westerlies and WNW'lies as a result for the UK.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the upper low moving away to the east and the upper ridge to the
west declining. NW'lies cover the UK on both days 6 and 7.
GFS shows the upper low to the east intensifying and moving slowly
eastwards. Day 6 sees moderate to strong NW'lies and WNW'lies for the UK,
with a very deep low over Denmark. On day 7 the low fills slowly, leaving
the UK under slightly lighter NW'lies.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 on the ECM show NW'lies as the ridge to the west continues to
slowly decline in situ.
GFS brings a ridge from the Azores High over the UK on day 8, followed by
warm SW'lies on day 9 as the ridge "topples" SE'wards. Day 10 sees WSW'lies
for all with low pressure over Iceland and a ridge over Biscay.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a cooler spell on the way, albeit not as cool as in
recent runs.