Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0544z, 13th July 2007.

The middle of the week will see low pressure near Scotland, with unsettled
conditions pushing across the UK. There's a low risk of gales for northern
Scotland, depending on how much the low deepens. After that a weak ridge
will bring drier weather before the next Atlantic low moves in for the
weekend.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A weak ridge covers the UK, with SW'lies and WSW'lies as a result. Tomorrow
the winds strengthen as low pressure crosses Scotland, but by Sunday the low
moves away to leave a weak ridge over England and Wales, with light winds
for all. On Monday a trough moves northwards over England and Wales,
bringing ENE'lies further north.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart continues to show a weak jet over the North Atlantic,
with a trough over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a low to the north
and ridges to the east and west. MetO is similar, albeit with a shallower
upper low, while ECM has a deeper low as per GFS. GEM shows little more than
a weak trough in the vicinity of the UK.
At the surface GFS brings strong WSW'lies over the UK, with a deep low to th
enorth. MetO's low is shallower, leading to moderate SW'lies. ECM places a
deep low over northern Scotland, with WSW'ly gales for the Highlands and
lighter WSW'lies elsewhere. GEM shows a col, with light winds.

Evolution to T+168
WSW'lies cover the UK on days 6 and 7 with ECM, as a ridge moves SE'wards to
the SW and low pressure moves away NNW'wards.
GFS brings WNW'lies and a trough on day 6, followed by further WNW'lies on
day 7 as a ridge approaches from the west.

Looking further afield
ECM brings a weak ridge over the UK on day 8, with SW'lies moving in from
the west. Day 9 sees strong SW'lies for all as a low crosses Scotland,
followed by NW'lies on day 10 as the low moves away to the east.
GFS shows a weak ridge and westerlies on day 8, followed by westerlies on
day 9 as a low crosses the Northern Isles. On day 10 another ridge
approaches from the west, with NW'lies in advance.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a typical English summer - a few warm days followed by
heavy rain. Into next week temperatures return to below average values.