Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Sunday.
Issued 0523z, 18th July 2007.

ECM shows the new week starting on an unsettled note, with all areas at risk
of rain. GFS and MetO also show relatively unsettled conditions, in the form
of slow-moving showers.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A trough covers the UK, with northerlies for Scotland and SW'lies elsewhere.
Tomorrow sees light winds with a ridge to the west, followed by further
light winds on Friday as a ridge moves over Scotland. Winds remain light on
Saturday, with pressure remaining high to the west.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet across the North Atlantic, with a
marked trough over the UK. At the 500hPa level there are upper lows to the
NE and SW, with a col over the UK. MetO has a low over Scotland, while ECM
has a deeper low to the east of Scotland. NGP has a deep upper low to the
NW, while GEM shows an upper col over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings a col and light winds, as does MetO for all areas
except Scotland, which lies under northerlies from a shallow low to the
east. ECM has SW'lies for most, again with a low to the east of Scotland.
NGP brings gusty SW'lies for all with a deep low to the WNW, while GEM shows
a col.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings a secondary low over Wales on day 6, with light winds for all. By
day 7 a low deepens to the west, drawing southerlies and SW'lies over the
UK.
GFS shows a col on day 6 and SW'lies on day 7, from a low to the NW.

Looking further afield
Beyond day 7, the ECM shows a deep low to the west on day 8 with strong
SW'lies and southerlies. The low deepens as it moves away to the NE on day
9, leaving strong SW'lies over the UK. Day 10 sees a ridge to the west and
NW'lies for the UK.
GFS shows WSW'lies for all on day 8 with a low persisting to the NW. The low
moves slowly eastwards on day 9, leading to WSW'lies for all. By day 10 a
trough moves eastwards, leaving the UK under WNW'lies.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a prolonged period of below average temperatures aloft,
with values returning to normal by the month's end.