"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007

(extract)

"...The study is being published in the journal Nature on Wednesday,
and its details are under embargo and cannot be reported until then.
But its main findings have caused a stir, and are being freely
discussed by climate scientists in the Met Office, the Hadley Centre
and the Department for Environment For Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs.
One source familiar with the study's conclusions said: "What this does
is establish for the first time that there is a distinct 'human
fingerprint' in the changes in precipitation patterns * the increases
in rainfall * observed in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, which
includes Britain.
"That means, it is not just the climate's natural variability which
has caused the increases, but there is a detectable human cause *
climate change, caused by our greenhouse gas emissions. The 'human
fingerprint' has been detected before in temperature rises, but never
before in rainfall. So this is very significant.
"Some people would argue that you can't take a single event and pin
that on climate change, but what happened in Britain last Friday fits
quite easily with these conclusions. It does seem to have a certain
resonance with what they're finding in this research."
The Hadley Centre lead scientist involved with the study was Dr Peter
Stott, who specialises in finding "human fingerprints" * sometimes
referred to as anthropogenic signals * on the changing climate. "

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/thi...cle2793067.ece

I think that a link to the article when published would be far more helpful
than yet more speculation from "One source familiar with the study's
conclusions "




brian
aberfeldy






wrote in message
ups.com...
"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007

(extract)

"...The study is being published in the journal Nature on Wednesday,
and its details are under embargo and cannot be reported until then.
But its main findings have caused a stir, and are being freely
discussed by climate scientists in the Met Office, the Hadley Centre
and the Department for Environment For Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs.
One source familiar with the study's conclusions said: "What this does
is establish for the first time that there is a distinct 'human
fingerprint' in the changes in precipitation patterns * the increases
in rainfall * observed in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, which
includes Britain.
"That means, it is not just the climate's natural variability which
has caused the increases, but there is a detectable human cause *
climate change, caused by our greenhouse gas emissions. The 'human
fingerprint' has been detected before in temperature rises, but never
before in rainfall. So this is very significant.
"Some people would argue that you can't take a single event and pin
that on climate change, but what happened in Britain last Friday fits
quite easily with these conclusions. It does seem to have a certain
resonance with what they're finding in this research."
The Hadley Centre lead scientist involved with the study was Dr Peter
Stott, who specialises in finding "human fingerprints" * sometimes
referred to as anthropogenic signals * on the changing climate. "

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/thi...cle2793067.ece

On 23 Jul, 09:03, "Brian Blair" wrote:

I think that a link to the article when published would be far more helpful
than yet more speculation from "One source familiar with the study's
conclusions "

Yes, when the links comes out, someone should post it.

From what I can work out the period May-July '07 so far, seems to
already be the wettest since 1766.
Looking at the weather forecast for the rest of July and given the
waterlogged state of the ground, I'd expect things will get worse
before they get better.

These are the May - June 2007 totals so far: -

Metoffice Hadley Temp

May 110.5 120.6 11.6
June 144.3 151.7 14.6

July 07 to 20th 90.1 15.5 (source: Philip
Eden's site)

Total so far: 362.4mm

Wettest comparable periods in Hadley precipitation data that I can
find a-

Year May Jun Jul Total (mm)
1766 108.1 109.2 101.7 319
Temp 9.7 13.7 15.7

1782 142.4 55.3 131.7 329.4
Temp 9.0 14.9 15.6

1797 109.5 134.9 79.4 323.8
Temp 11.3 13.3 17.3

1817 101.4 92.1 119.7 313.2
Temp 8.7 15.1 14.1

1830 100.1 128.9 94.0 323
Temp 12 12.7 16.2

Temperatures included for comparison purposes.
If anyone spots a wetter series please post it.

On Jul 23, 10:14 am, wrote:
On 23 Jul, 09:03, "Brian Blair" wrote:

I think that a link to the article when published would be far more helpful
than yet more speculation from "One source familiar with the study's
conclusions "

Yes, when the links comes out, someone should post it.

One source familiar with the study's conclusions perhaps.

From what I can work out the period May-July '07 so far, seems to

already be the wettest since 1766.

So glowballs is well into its third century, at the least?

Looking at the weather forecast for the rest of July and given the
waterlogged state of the ground, I'd expect things will get worse
before they get better.

Without a doubt the most sensible of your observations so far.

These are the May - June 2007 totals so far: -

Metoffice Hadley Temp

May 110.5 120.6 11.6
June 144.3 151.7 14.6

July 07 to 20th 90.1 15.5 (source: Philip
Eden's site)

Total so far: 362.4mm

Wettest comparable periods in Hadley precipitation data that I can
find a-

Year May Jun Jul Total (mm)

1766 108.1 109.2 101.7 319

1782 142.4 55.3 131.7 329.4

1797 109.5 134.9 79.4 323.8

1817 101.4 92.1 119.7 313.2

1830 100.1 128.9 94.0 323

Temperatures removed for comparison purposes.

wrote:
"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007

That would only be possible if their previous view that gw would make the jet
stream move further north is incorrect, given that the present weather is
supposed to be a consequence of said jet stream being too far south.

Coincidentally, I posted on the matter of the jet stream position yesterday.

If their previous view was incorrect, then their present (conflicting) view may
also be incorrect.
On the other hand, they may just want to keep the cake which they are eating.


--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

wrote in message
oups.com...
On 23 Jul, 09:03, "Brian Blair" wrote:

I think that a link to the article when published would be far more
helpful
than yet more speculation from "One source familiar with the study's
conclusions "

Yes, when the links comes out, someone should post it.

H.M. Customs and Excise ?

wrote:
"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007

(extract)

"...The study is being published in the journal Nature on Wednesday,
and its details are under embargo and cannot be reported until then.
But its main findings have caused a stir

Wasn't it last year that GW was going to cause more *drought* in the UK
with this country set to become a Southern Mediterranean scorched earth
climate??? And, erm, more hurricanes - which seem to be in very short
supply.

On 23 Jul, 11:50, Les Crossan
venthisk wrote:
wrote:
"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007

(extract)

"...The study is being published in the journal Nature on Wednesday,
and its details are under embargo and cannot be reported until then.
But its main findings have caused a stir

Wasn't it last year that GW was going to cause more *drought* in the UK
with this country set to become a Southern Mediterranean scorched earth
climate??? And, erm, more hurricanes - which seem to be in very short
supply.

Well, it might be said that this was a prescient long range weather
forecast by John Mitchell.

He's now Chief Boffin at the Met office isn't he?

Why global warming could take Britain by storm
07 November 1992
by Paul Simons, New Scientist

" John Mitchell, head of climate modelling at the Met Office's Hadley
Centre, thinks global warming could precipitate storms nearer to
Europe in the eastern Atlantic. This means they will arrive in Britain
in a far more powerful and dangerous state: more water will have
evaporated from seas that have warmed with the climate, in turn
causing wider variations in atmospheric moisture and temperature, and
so stronger winds. Because such storms will occur nearer to the
continent, forecasters will have less time to spot them, predict their
paths and give the appropriate warnings. "

http://environment.newscientist.com/...mg13618464.400

On 23 Jul, 11:01, Gianna wrote:
wrote:
"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007

That would only be possible if their previous view that gw would make the jet
stream move further north is incorrect, given that the present weather is
supposed to be a consequence of said jet stream being too far south.

Coincidentally, I posted on the matter of the jet stream position yesterday.

If their previous view was incorrect, then their present (conflicting) view may
also be incorrect.
On the other hand, they may just want to keep the cake which they are eating.

--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

Not sure about what the computer models predict, but there was a study
done using satellite observations a while ago, which found evidence
for a 70 mile poleward shift of the Jet Stream, but was unable to
conclusively relate it to Global Warming models.

ref Enhanced Mid-Latitude Tropospheric Warming in Satellite
Measurements
Qiang Fu,Celeste M. Johanson,John M. Wallace,Thomas Reichler
Science, May 26. 2006 Vol. 312. no. 5777, p. 1179

Gianna wrote:

wrote:
"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007

That would only be possible if their previous view that gw would make the
jet stream move further north is incorrect, given that the present weather
is supposed to be a consequence of said jet stream being too far south.

Coincidentally, I posted on the matter of the jet stream position
yesterday.

If their previous view was incorrect, then their present (conflicting)
view may also be incorrect.
On the other hand, they may just want to keep the cake which they are
eating.



They were referring to the *average* position of the jet-stream. Forecasts
of heavier rain events caused by AGW had nothing to do with jet-stream
positions. Warmer air can carry more water. Warmer seas evaporate more
water into the atmosphere. That extra water gets dumped somewhere.

We've had summers in the past with jet-streams further south than usual but
without the amount of rain we've seen this summer.

--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.