Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Saturday.
Issued 0525z, 31st July 2007 For England and Wales, the rest of the working week will see temperatures close to or (especially in the south and east) above average. By Sunday it's looking likely there'll be a small plume of very warm air drawn up from the south ahead of an advancing cold front, meaning Saturday or (in the east) Sunday could well be hot in places. The front then clears away eastwards, leaving the UK under a ridge and with generally dry conditions persisting. As ever, the exception is the north and northwest of the UK, which will see much more in the way of cloud from lows passing near Iceland. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif High pressure covers the UK. Tomorrow the high declines as a trough moves across Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing SW'lies there and light winds for England and Wales. A col affects much of the UK on Thursday, although northern Scotland lies under WSW'lies from a low to the north. On Friday another ridge builds over the UK. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a strong jet over the North Atlantic and a large ridge just to the east of the UK, with the jet heading northwards to the east of Iceland. At the 500hPa level there's a sharp trough to the west and a ridge to the east. ECM has the ridge further west, atop the UK, while MetO is more progressive and has the ridge over the Low Countries instead. GEM shows a strong SW'ly gradient aloft over the UK, while NGP has an upper low to the north and upper westerlies over the UK. At the surface GFS brings a trough over Northern Ireland and (very warm) southerlies in advance. ECM has hot southerlies over the UK with a ridge over the North Sea, while MetO has a col over much of the UK. GEM shows strong SW'lies for all due to an intense Icelandic low and NGP brings westerlies with a ridge to the south. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows a col over the UK at T+144, followed by NE'lies at T+168 as high pressure builds over Scotland and Northern Ireland. GFS brings an upper trough over the UK on days 6 and 7, with high pressure to the SW and WNW'lies for all as a result. Looking further afield Beyond day 7, the ECM shows little change. There's a quasi-stationary ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland, leading to NE'lies persisting out to day 10. NW'lies cover the UK on day 8 as the upper trough becomes a cut-off low to the east. Day 9 sees a ridge to the west, a low to the ENE and further NW'lies for the UK. By day 10 a ridge moves in from the west, with westerlies and WNW'lies for the UK. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles continue to show a dry and warm outlook in the short term, followed by a return to nearer average conditions next week. |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
Today's model interpretation (10/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (9/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (8/7/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (7/6/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (5/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |