Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Monday.
Issued 0515z, 10th August 2007

It's now looking like the UK will be affected by an unseasonably deep low
next week, passing over Scotland and Northern Ireland. Everywhere will see
rain, potentially heavy, while temperatures are likely to be on the cool
side under any prolonged rain.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A ridge covers England and Wales, with southerlies elsewhere from a low to
the NW. Winds become light southerlies tomorrow as the low fills, followed
by further southerlies for many on Sunday due to the low deepening over the
Western Isles. The low deepens further on Monday, bringing westerlies and
WSW'lies over the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a trough over the UK and a strong jet to the
south. At the 500hPa level there's an upper low to the WNW, while ECM has an
upper trough to the west instead. MetO, like GFS, has a low to the WNW as
does GEM. NGP places an upper low over the British Isles.
At the surface, GFS has a deep low over Northern Ireland and SE'ly gales for
Scotland. Elsehwere winds are moderate to strong SW'lies. ECM shows a deep
low south of Ireland, with strong to gale force southerlies and SSE'lies.
MetO's low is centred over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with strong
southerlies elsewhere. GEM shows complex low pressure over Ireland and to
the NW, with southerlies for the UK. NGP has a low over the Wash, with
cyclonic winds over the UK.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows low pressure moving slowly NE'wards over Scotland on day 6, with
strong NW'lies and WSW'lies for the UK. By day 7 it fills to the NE, leaving
strong WNW'lies over the UK.
Day 6 on the GFS shows a very deep low near Northern Ireland, bringing
southerlies and SE'lies over the UK. The low fills and crosses Scotland on
day 7, leaving a mixture of NW'lies and SW'lies behind.

Looking further afield
The ECM shows a trough to the east on day 8, with NW'lies and WNW'lies for
the UK. On day 9 a ridge builds to the west, with further NW'lies. NW'lies
persist on day 10 as the Azores High builds to the west.
The GFS on day 8 shows WNW'lies and a ridge to the west. The winds become
westerlies on day 9 as the Azores High builds to the SW and on day 10
SW'lies affect the UK with the Azores High ridging over Biscay.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles continue to show near normal temperatures for the next week,
again with a good chance of rain as time goes by.