Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Wednesday.
Issued 0526z, 11th August 2007

The latter half of the working week will bring unsettled conditions with
most areas seeing rain. Into the weekend pressure will build, but the models
are split; GFS shows things turning dry and sunny, while ECM keeps things
cloudier with a greater risk of rain.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Low pressure lies to the NW, with light winds over the UK. The low deepens
over the Western Isles tomorrow, bringing SSW'lies for much of the UK. By
Monday the low deepens further over northern Scotland, resulting in WSW'lies
for all. The winds increase in strength on Tuesday as the low deepens in
situ.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a trough over the UK, with the jet running
NE'wards over France and the Low Countries. At the 500hPa level there's a
large trough atop the UK, with a large ridge to the west. MetO is
unavailable, but ECM shows an upper low to the NW instead. GEM has an upper
low to the WNW and NGP brings a trough over the UK much as with GFS.
At the surface, GFS has complex low pressure to the NE and a mixture of
NW'lies and WSW'lies over the UK. ECM has WNW'lies and WSW'lies, again with
a low to the NE. GEM places a low over Scotland, with strong to gale force
SW'lies for the UK. NGP has a trough over Ireland and moderate SW'lies for
all.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows low pressure to the NW on days 6 and 7, with SW'lies on day 6 and
WSW'lies on day 7.
Day 6 on the GFS shows a trough over the North Sea and WNW'lies for all. A
ridge covers England and Wales on day 7, with westerlies for all.

Looking further afield
Day 8 on the ECM brings westerlies for all with a trough over eastern areas
of the UK. Day 9 sees SW'lies as another trough approaches from the west and
on day 10 winds become NW'lies for all fue to a low over the North Sea.
The GFS on day 8 shows anticyclonic WNW'lies over the UK, with the Azores
High to the west. Winds become NW'lies on day 9 due to a shallow low over
the North Sea, followed by northerlies on day 10 as the Azores High ridges
over Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a wet few days next week, with temperatures aloft not far
from normal. Temperatures then fall for the end of the week and into the
weekend.

In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 11 Aug 2007, Darren Prescott
wrote :

The latter half of the working week will bring unsettled conditions
with most areas seeing rain. Into the weekend pressure will build, but
the models are split; GFS shows things turning dry and sunny, while ECM
keeps things cloudier with a greater risk of rain.

Getting near the end of the period where excessive heat can occur...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 11 Aug 2007, Darren Prescott
wrote :

The latter half of the working week will bring unsettled conditions
with most areas seeing rain. Into the weekend pressure will build, but
the models are split; GFS shows things turning dry and sunny, while ECM
keeps things cloudier with a greater risk of rain.

Getting near the end of the period where excessive heat can occur...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Indeed, looks like we've escaped in this beautiful summer.

:-)

Yet another gorgeous sunny morning on 11th!
Breakfast on the terrace once again.

Will (Haytor,Devon,1017 feet asl)
--