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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Wednessday.
Issued 0527z, 18th August 2007 The run up to the weekend will see high pressure dominating the UK, as a ridge builds from the west. Most areas will see dry and warm weather and there's no sign of a quick change back to unsettled conditions on the horizon. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png Low pressure lies to the west, bringing SSE'lies and southerlies over the UK. The low crosses the UK today and tomorrow, allowing a weak ridge to cross the UK on Monday. Tuesday sees a ridge to the west and NW'lies for most. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a strong jet heading NE'wards across the North Atlantic, passing between Scotland and Iceland. This has the effect of allowing a large upper ridge to extend NE'wards over the UK from the Azores. MetO shows a similar upper ridge over the UK, as does ECM. GEM has a tighter NNE'ly gradient over the UK, with the ridge further west. At the surface, GFS brings a strong ridge over the UK with light winds for most. MetO shows a similar ridge but further south, leading to SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. ECM centres the ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with northerlies elsewhere. GEM is similar to ECM, albeit with stronger northerlies over England and Wales. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows the Azores High building and moving slowly NNE'wards to the west of the UK. On day 6 a ridge persists over Scotland and Northern Ireland, as is the case on day 7. On both days England and Wales lie under northerlies. Days 6 and 7 on the GFS show high pressure building to the west of Ireland, with a NW'ly flow over the UK. Looking further afield The ECM shows the high slowly declining and moving SE'wards on days 8 to 10. A mixture of NW'lies and northerlies covers the UK on days 8 and 9, with westerlies on day 10. On days 8 to 10 the GFS brings high pressure slowly eastwards across the UK and, by day 10, over the nearby Continent. Days 8 and 9 see a mixture of westerlies and NW'lies, followed by SW'lies and SE'lies on day 10 as the high recentred over southern Germany. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles show a warm, dry spell on the way. |
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