A potent looking upper trough driving tonight's development arriving
from the west: wonder if we'll see any tornadic development?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_7.gif
[ 500 hPa vorticity advection ]

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_6.gif
[ 500 hPa vertical velocity ]

Also, indication of local high rainfall totals - Ensemble output
suggests at least 15 mm for our location (East Dorset), and
deterministic ~20 mm; further north, even higher (6hr) totals are
predicted:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_4.gif
[ 6 hr PPN accumulation ]

should easily bring to an end the 35 day spell of quiet, dry weather -
and bring a few leaves down as well - nice start to the new working
week!

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

"Martin Rowley" wrote...

should easily bring to an end the 35 day spell of quiet, dry
weather - and bring a few leaves down as well - nice start to the
new working week!


.... the rain/drizzle this afternoon (began 1320Z), occasionally
moderate, amounted to 3 mm up to 18Z OB and has already ended the
extended spell of dry weather. Everything now nicely damp.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

"Martin Rowley" wrote in
:

A potent looking upper trough driving tonight's development arriving
from the west: wonder if we'll see any tornadic development?
snip

TORRO has a tornado watch out for most of the southern half of Britain. The
Met Office radar is pretty impressive as I type - a wide band of red/pink
running from Edinburgh to South Wales.

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

"Martin Rowley" wrote ...

Also, indication of local high rainfall totals - Ensemble output
suggests at least 15 mm for our location (East Dorset), and
deterministic ~20 mm; further north, even higher (6hr) totals are
predicted:


.... 17.4 mm total rainfall, of which ~3 mm fell yesterday afternoon
(up to 18Z), so ~14 mm overnight not a bad outcome.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

On 24 Sep, 08:38, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

... 17.4 mm total rainfall, of which ~3 mm fell yesterday afternoon
(up to 18Z), so ~14 mm overnight not a bad outcome.

I notice that the Beeb made reference to it being an ana cold front
last night - not directly, but pointed to squally winds and heavy rain
along the front so they clearly were expecting it. Good work, the
models !

One of my friends reported a blocked road in the Theydon Bois /
Loughton area of Essex so sounds like there's been some decent gusts
along the front. Cranwell 67 mph, Lyneham 63 mph ...

Cheers
Richard

On Sep 23, 11:03 am, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
A potent looking upper trough driving tonight's development arriving
from the west: wonder if we'll see any tornadic development?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_7.gif
[ 500 hPa vorticity advection ]

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_6.gif
[ 500 hPa vertical velocity ]

Also, indication of local high rainfall totals - Ensemble output
suggests at least 15 mm for our location (East Dorset), and
deterministic ~20 mm; further north, even higher (6hr) totals are
predicted:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_4.gif
[ 6 hr PPN accumulation ]

should easily bring to an end the 35 day spell of quiet, dry weather -
and bring a few leaves down as well - nice start to the new working
week!

So what is the difference between whatever fronts cause tornadoes and
with squall lines?

Altitude?

Looks like Google is screwing up again.