"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article . com,
Richard Dixon writes:
Msnip report from The Times
Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that
the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming
would
mean more stormy weather.

That seems very contentious. The former is I believe true, but the
latter has yet to be shown to my satisfaction.

Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said:
"Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.

Have we? What's his evidence for this having happened or that, if it
has
happened, it was any more than chance? If there were, by his
definition
of an "extreme storm", two in the last fifty years but none in the
fifty
years before that, then anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of
statistics would know that this proves nothing.

It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

One could argue that, since the Arctic seems to be warming more
rapidly
than areas further south, the temperature differential will be
decreased
and the intensity of depressions will diminish. Presumably that
isn't
what the models are suggesting though.

.... this makes interesting reading:-

http://climate.arm.ac.uk/publication...tory_Dr4. htm

A lot to take in, and there are the usual caveats regarding changing
instrumentation, methodology of observers on duty etc., but this
paragraph is worth quoting I think:-

"Conclusions

Very significant variations in storminess have been recorded over the
last 200 years for Armagh observatory despite the sheltered inland
nature of the site. This includes evidence for increased storminess at
the end of the Little Ice Age. However, there is no evidence of
increased storminess over the last 30 years. When similar records from
other Irish stations are examined, there is some evidence of a
possible northwards movement of the storm tracks that have affected
the island of Ireland over the last 30 years."

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

Very significant variations in storminess have been recorded over the
last 200 years for Armagh observatory despite the sheltered inland
nature of the site. This includes evidence for increased storminess at
the end of the Little Ice Age. However, there is no evidence of
increased storminess over the last 30 years. When similar records from
other Irish stations are examined, there is some evidence of a
possible northwards movement of the storm tracks that have affected
the island of Ireland over the last 30 years."

Martin.

Number of gales in Penzance:-

8 years 1992-1999 137 - 17 per annum.
Broadly in line with the earlier date in HH Lambs 'The English
Climate'

8 years 2000-2007 (so far) 77 - 10 per annum.

Down to the more northwards tracking of most of the storms?

Last winter saw some massive seas, certainly the most consistent big
seas this century, but there were no really damaging gusts. (Strongest
I recorded 61mph, compared to 80mph on 4/1/98)

The seas were certainly damaging, but apparently the MetO weather
warnings don't cater for this. When I suggested that a warning should
have been issued at a time when Penzance prom was shut due to the
volume of sea water pouring across & into houses, and cars were being
washed off the pier at Mousehole, it was pointed out to me rather
bluntly that 'Threshold values had not been met for a coastal
location' apparently because the wind wasn't strong enough.

Graham
Penzance

Graham
Penzance

Penzance

Penzance


So good they named it twice

On Thu, 11 Oct 2007 12:20:33 -0700, Graham Easterling
wrote:

... Penzance prom was shut due to the
volume of sea water pouring across & into houses, and cars were being
washed off the pier at Mousehole, it was pointed out to me rather
bluntly that 'Threshold values had not been met for a coastal
location' apparently because the wind wasn't strong enough.

Bit off topic... but there's not much hope of getting a Tsunami
warning then, if and when La Palma in the Canaries collapses into the
Atlantic. Or a large swell warning if the next "hurricane" just
misses.

--
Dave

On Oct 11, 6:25 pm, John Hall wrote:
In article . com,
Richard Dixon writes:
Msnip report from The Times

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

That seems very contentious. The former is I believe true, but the
latter has yet to be shown to my satisfaction.

Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said: "Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.

Have we? What's his evidence for this having happened or that, if it has
happened, it was any more than chance? If there were, by his definition
of an "extreme storm", two in the last fifty years but none in the fifty
years before that, then anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of
statistics would know that this proves nothing.

It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

One could argue that, since the Arctic seems to be warming more rapidly
than areas further south, the temperature differential will be decreased
and the intensity of depressions will diminish. Presumably that isn't
what the models are suggesting though.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

I, too, am highly suspicious of this forecast of increased
storminess for the same reasons that you give, while not doubting for
one second that the world has got warmer and will continue to do so.
Historically, the stormiest periods in this country were during cold
epochs such as the Little Ice Age when the north-south temperature
gradient was larger than it is now and the zone of maximum gradient
was further south, i.e. closer to the UK. One can safely ignore the
opinions of newspaper columnists on this matter because they know
nothing about climate, let alone climate change, but when it comes
from meterologists one simply has to take notice. But I wonder to
what extent these fellows were making political statements to try to
persuade us that Global Warming is a Bad Thing because it will affect
*us*. My own guess is that the average inhabitant of these isles
finds the warmer climate rather congenial, and probably wants more of
it and to hell with the allegedly drowning polar bears and shrinking
glaciers. The evidence so far does not support a forecast of
increased storminess.. There was a stormy spell 1986 -1993 after
which it has all gone mostly rather quiet. What is the physics behind
these predictions? What, also, is the real rate of sea-level rise,
and how does it comparewith current predictions?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Thu, 11 Oct 2007 17:56:49 -0700, Tudor Hughes
wrote:

I, too, am highly suspicious of this forecast of increased
storminess for the same reasons that you give, while not doubting for
one second that the world has got warmer and will continue to do so.
Historically, the stormiest periods in this country were during cold
epochs such as the Little Ice Age when the north-south temperature
gradient was larger than it is now and the zone of maximum gradient
was further south, i.e. closer to the UK. One can safely ignore the
opinions of newspaper columnists on this matter because they know
nothing about climate, let alone climate change, but when it comes
from meterologists one simply has to take notice. But I wonder to
what extent these fellows were making political statements to try to
persuade us that Global Warming is a Bad Thing because it will affect
*us*. My own guess is that the average inhabitant of these isles
finds the warmer climate rather congenial, and probably wants more of
it and to hell with the allegedly drowning polar bears and shrinking
glaciers. The evidence so far does not support a forecast of
increased storminess.. There was a stormy spell 1986 -1993 after
which it has all gone mostly rather quiet. What is the physics behind
these predictions? What, also, is the real rate of sea-level rise,
and how does it comparewith current predictions?

All good points and I tend towards that viewpoint myself. We are given
far too little information in these press reports or statements and
this tends to increase my suspicions. The following extract makes me
particularly suspicious:

"Meteorologists at the Met Office are convinced
that with additional money to purchase a new super-computer they will
be able vastly to improve their success in forecasting weather and
climate changes.

Brian Golding, head of forecasting research, said that the technology,
which would cost hundreds of millions of pounds, would save lives and
pay back the investment ten times over."

It seems to me that the Met Office may be pitching for funds for a new
supercomputer - and when money enters into a debate, my scepticism
about statements lacking in detail (such as this) increases markedly.

--
Dave

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
s.com...
On Oct 11, 6:25 pm, John Hall wrote:
In article . com,
Richard Dixon writes:
Msnip report from The Times

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

That seems very contentious. The former is I believe true, but the
latter has yet to be shown to my satisfaction.

Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said: "Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.

Have we? What's his evidence for this having happened or that, if it has
happened, it was any more than chance? If there were, by his definition
of an "extreme storm", two in the last fifty years but none in the fifty
years before that, then anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of
statistics would know that this proves nothing.

It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

One could argue that, since the Arctic seems to be warming more rapidly
than areas further south, the temperature differential will be decreased
and the intensity of depressions will diminish. Presumably that isn't
what the models are suggesting though.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

I, too, am highly suspicious of this forecast of increased
storminess for the same reasons that you give, while not doubting for
one second that the world has got warmer and will continue to do so.
Historically, the stormiest periods in this country were during cold
epochs such as the Little Ice Age when the north-south temperature
gradient was larger than it is now and the zone of maximum gradient
was further south, i.e. closer to the UK. One can safely ignore the
opinions of newspaper columnists on this matter because they know
nothing about climate, let alone climate change, but when it comes
from meterologists one simply has to take notice. But I wonder to
what extent these fellows were making political statements to try to
persuade us that Global Warming is a Bad Thing because it will affect
*us*. My own guess is that the average inhabitant of these isles
finds the warmer climate rather congenial, and probably wants more of
it and to hell with the allegedly drowning polar bears and shrinking
glaciers. The evidence so far does not support a forecast of
increased storminess.. There was a stormy spell 1986 -1993 after
which it has all gone mostly rather quiet. What is the physics behind
these predictions? What, also, is the real rate of sea-level rise,
and how does it comparewith current predictions?


Certainly more benign over the UK in recent years. Obviously we have had
Boscastle, Hull floods, Severn floods etc but they have been interspersed with
long benign spells of "quiet samey weather" (like our present one). This to me
is the effect of GW on the UK so far. As for the future I too know people who
say "if it's going to be like this, bring it on", I'm not one of them I might
add as I love the cold and snow and weather that is full of action with "sting
jets", tornadoes, ana cold fronts etc etc !

Ah well yet another quiet October day ahead - yawn :-)

Will
--

On 12 Oct, 09:35, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message

s.com...



On Oct 11, 6:25 pm, John Hall wrote:
In article . com,
Richard Dixon writes:
Msnip report from The Times

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

That seems very contentious. The former is I believe true, but the
latter has yet to be shown to my satisfaction.

Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said: "Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.

Have we? What's his evidence for this having happened or that, if it has
happened, it was any more than chance? If there were, by his definition
of an "extreme storm", two in the last fifty years but none in the fifty
years before that, then anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of
statistics would know that this proves nothing.

It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

One could argue that, since the Arctic seems to be warming more rapidly
than areas further south, the temperature differential will be decreased
and the intensity of depressions will diminish. Presumably that isn't
what the models are suggesting though.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

I, too, am highly suspicious of this forecast of increased
storminess for the same reasons that you give, while not doubting for
one second that the world has got warmer and will continue to do so.
Historically, the stormiest periods in this country were during cold
epochs such as the Little Ice Age when the north-south temperature
gradient was larger than it is now and the zone of maximum gradient
was further south, i.e. closer to the UK. One can safely ignore the
opinions of newspaper columnists on this matter because they know
nothing about climate, let alone climate change, but when it comes
from meterologists one simply has to take notice. But I wonder to
what extent these fellows were making political statements to try to
persuade us that Global Warming is a Bad Thing because it will affect
*us*. My own guess is that the average inhabitant of these isles
finds the warmer climate rather congenial, and probably wants more of
it and to hell with the allegedly drowning polar bears and shrinking
glaciers. The evidence so far does not support a forecast of
increased storminess.. There was a stormy spell 1986 -1993 after
which it has all gone mostly rather quiet. What is the physics behind
these predictions? What, also, is the real rate of sea-level rise,
and how does it comparewith current predictions?

Certainly more benign over the UK in recent years. Obviously we have had
Boscastle, Hull floods, Severn floods etc but they have been interspersed with
long benign spells of "quiet samey weather" (like our present one). This to me
is the effect of GW on the UK so far. As for the future I too know people who
say "if it's going to be like this, bring it on", I'm not one of them I might
add as I love the cold and snow and weather that is full of action with "sting
jets", tornadoes, ana cold fronts etc etc !

Ah well yet another quiet October day ahead - yawn :-)

Bring it on? What this one? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...525.shtml?3day