Weathermen admitted yesterday, 20 years after they failed to forecast
the Great Storm of 1987, that a similarly devastating event could
still arrive undetected. The news comes amid concerns over climate
change, which forecasters expect will lead to more storms hitting
Britain with greater intensity. Forecasting techniques have improved
greatly since October 16, 1987, when hurricane-force winds swept
across southern England. Although computers are much more powerful,
weather patterns better understood and warning systems far more
sophisticated than they were in 1987, weather researchers say that
further improvements are required.

Ewen McCallum, the Met Office's chief meteorologist, said that it was
"highly likely" that the next such storm would be accurately forecast,
but
admitted that it was possible that weathermen could get it wrong
again. "I'd like to think, should a great storm or major depression
occur again, the risk of it happening would be picked up and
communicated to the public," he said. "It's highly likely we would
predict it, but we can't be complacent." Modelling techniques
available in 1987 identified stormy weather approaching two or three
days before the storm hit. In the 24 hours before it struck, however,
the storm seemed likely to come up the Channel and miss Britain.

It was this belief that led Michael Fish to declare to viewers:
"Earlier on
today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she'd heard there was a
hurricane on the way. Well if you are watching, don't worry, there
isn't."
The storm that followed was the worst in nearly 300 years, killing 18
people and causing about £1 billion in damage but it is increasingly
being regarded as the first of several likely to sweep across Britain.

Having been described at the time as a once-in-200-years weather
event, it was matched less than three years later by the Burns Day
Storm in January 1990. That storm, which hit in the early hours of
January 25, affected a much larger swathe of the country than the
Great Storm. Parts of Wales and southern England recorded even
stronger winds and 47 people were killed.

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather. Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said: "Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.
It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

In the aftermath of the 1987 storm the Met Office set up its National
Severe Weather Warning Service to help to make emergency services and
the public aware of potentially dangerous weather. Analysis of the
factors that contributed to the devastating winds, which were recorded
at up to 122mph, gave meteorologists a better understanding of the
storm. They have run a series of retrospective forecasts and
identified a "sting jet" - a sudden downward surge of air at high
speed in the tail of a storm system - as the main factor in making the
1987 event so deadly. Meteorologists at the Met Office are convinced
that with additional money to purchase a new super-computer they will
be able vastly to improve their success in forecasting weather and
climate changes.

Brian Golding, head of forecasting research, said that the technology,
which would cost hundreds of millions of pounds, would save lives and
pay back the investment ten times over.

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

Well Lawrence and Will, that is you flattened!

Cheers, alastair.

On Oct 11, 12:52 pm, Alastair wrote:
Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

Well Lawrence and Will, that is you flattened!

Cheers, alastair.

Let's hope Mr McCallum is right. There's mure and more evidence
showing that a slightly warmer world will mean less storms.
Put into the mix all that extra Co2 that plants just love, it would
seem things are looking up. Another bonus for you Alastair is all the
money you'll save now you wont need that prozac anymore; you do pay
for prescription north of the border don't you? I know you don't pay
for elderly care .

Its a "weather article" in a newspaper. nuff said

brian
aberfeldy

11th Oct 14:11: around 18 C or so....(doh!)






Alastair wrote:
Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

Well Lawrence and Will, that is you flattened!

Cheers, alastair.

On 11 Oct, 13:55, wrote:
On Oct 11, 12:52 pm, Alastair wrote:

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

Well Lawrence and Will, that is you flattened!

Cheers, alastair.

Let's hope Mr McCallum is right. There's mure and more evidence
showing that a slightly warmer world will mean less storms.
Put into the mix all that extra Co2 that plants just love, it would
seem things are looking up. Another bonus for you Alastair is all the
money you'll save now you wont need that prozac anymore; you do pay
for prescription north of the border don't you? I know you don't pay
for elderly care .

Don't worry Lawrence - I can keep up with you without any Prozac. I'm
not in a home for elderly care yet :-)

On Oct 11, 2:11 pm, Alastair wrote:
On 11 Oct, 13:55, wrote:





On Oct 11, 12:52 pm, Alastair wrote:

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

Well Lawrence and Will, that is you flattened!

Cheers, alastair.

Let's hope Mr McCallum is right. There's mure and more evidence
showing that a slightly warmer world will mean less storms.
Put into the mix all that extra Co2 that plants just love, it would
seem things are looking up. Another bonus for you Alastair is all the
money you'll save now you wont need that prozac anymore; you do pay
for prescription north of the border don't you? I know you don't pay
for elderly care .

Don't worry Lawrence - I can keep up with you without any Prozac. I'm
not in a home for elderly care yet :-)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I get the feeling that Mr McCallum is the man at the met responsible
for the map of the UK turning red every time a cloud passes by. The
man who has single handedly raised public awarness as to the dangers
of rain. Wasn't he also the man behind the bitter winter warning of
2005/6. Wasn't it this forecasted winter that Patricia Hewitt then the
secretary for health said in spring 2006 had been the bitterest for 40
odd years.

Now there''s something fishy going on here and it ain't Michael. The
labor Party come to power in 97 gradually the promote the people they
want at the Met h%S goes absolutely mad with every forecast more
apocolyptic than the last. He also presides over the met office now
being a Global Warming oracle; in fact it's web link when saved as a
favorite now says

"Met Office Weather and Climate Change"

Nope there's something going on here, isn't he a scot as well and we
all ni the Labour Party is filled with them my last piece of very
worrying evidence is the colour of red, with the met often send the UK
crimson at the drop of a tammy shanter.

"Alastair" wrote in message
ups.com...
Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

Well Lawrence and Will, that is you flattened!

Cheers, alastair.


LOL

Another lovely quiet day in Haytor today, very balmy and no fog. Maybe breakfast
on the terrace tomorrow, it's a hard life you know :-)

Will
--

On Oct 11, 5:25 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message

ups.com...

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

Well Lawrence and Will, that is you flattened!

Cheers, alastair.

LOL

Another lovely quiet day in Haytor today, very balmy and no fog. Maybe breakfast
on the terrace tomorrow, it's a hard life you know :-)

Will
--

I'm not too sure why he's roped you into this one Will, are you?

In article . com,
Richard Dixon writes:
Msnip report from The Times
Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

That seems very contentious. The former is I believe true, but the
latter has yet to be shown to my satisfaction.

Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said: "Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.

Have we? What's his evidence for this having happened or that, if it has
happened, it was any more than chance? If there were, by his definition
of an "extreme storm", two in the last fifty years but none in the fifty
years before that, then anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of
statistics would know that this proves nothing.

It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

One could argue that, since the Arctic seems to be warming more rapidly
than areas further south, the temperature differential will be decreased
and the intensity of depressions will diminish. Presumably that isn't
what the models are suggesting though.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

I like your reasoning John,it falls nicely between Al Gore and our
Lawrence....

RonB


"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article . com,
Richard Dixon writes:
Msnip report from The Times
Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather.

That seems very contentious. The former is I believe true, but the
latter has yet to be shown to my satisfaction.

Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said: "Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.

Have we? What's his evidence for this having happened or that, if it has
happened, it was any more than chance? If there were, by his definition
of an "extreme storm", two in the last fifty years but none in the fifty
years before that, then anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of
statistics would know that this proves nothing.

It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

One could argue that, since the Arctic seems to be warming more rapidly
than areas further south, the temperature differential will be decreased
and the intensity of depressions will diminish. Presumably that isn't
what the models are suggesting though.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones