see

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...e.htm?list6034

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 11/10/2007 22:26:21 GMT

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
see

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...e.htm?list6034

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 11/10/2007 22:26:21 GMT


Thanks mike,

I've been sat watching the movie for some time trying to work out the
mechanics of the whole system.

Not sure I understand everything!

Paul

On Oct 12, 12:44 am, "paulus" wrote:
"Mike Tullett" wrote in message

...

see

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...e.htm?list6034

I've been sat watching the movie for some time trying to work out the
mechanics of the whole system.

Not sure I understand everything!

You will understand a lot less listening to me:

July 4-5, 1999."The Boundary Waters-Canadian Derecho".ND, MN, ON, QB,
NH, VT, ME

Time of phase: 28th Jun 21:37.

Storm name: 02L Basin: NAT Start date: 03.07.1999 End date:
03.07.1999??? Maximum sustained wind: 30 knots

Storm name: BEATRIZ Basin:NEP Start date: 09.07.1999 End date:
16.07.1999 Maximum sustained wind: 105 knots.

A super-cyclone!

So the harmonic (or whatever this thing is caused by) has been
switched back 4 hours from 21: 37 to somewhere in the region of 17:37.
Which is meaningless except that the 37 minutes take the spell out to
where things are unstable for some inexplicable reason.

July 1995 Derecho Series Overview.Montana to New England July 12-13,
1995."The Right Turn Derecho".MT, ND, MN, WI, MI, ON, OH, PA, WV

July 14-15, 1995."The Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho".MI, ON, NY, VT, NH,
MA, CT, RI

Time of phase: 12th July 10:49.

Sept. 7, 1998."The Syracuse Derecho of Labor Day 1998".NY, PA, VT, MA,
NH

Sept. 7, 1998."The New York City Derecho of Labor Day 1998".MI, OH,
WV, PA, NJ, NY, CT

Time of phase: 3rd Sept 03:50.

Storm name: 07W Basin: NWP Start date: 02.09.1998 End date:
04.09.1998. Maximum sustained wind: 30 knots.

Storm name: JAVIER Basin: NEP Start date: 07.09.1998 End date:
11.09.1998. Maximum sustained wind: 45 knots.

Storm name: FRANCES Basin: NAT Start date: 08.09.1998 End date:
12.09.1998. Maximum sustained wind: 55 knots.

No super cyclones.

May 27-28, 2001."The People Chaser Derecho".KS, OK, TX

Time of phase: 23rd May 02:46.

Storm name: 01A Basin: NI Start date: 21.05.2001 End date: 28.05.2001.
Maximum sustained wind: 115 knots.

Another super-cyclone! This threw the spell from 02:46 to 22:46. (And
from the 46 minutes, unstable spell too.)

May 30-31, 1998."The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1998".MN, IA, WI,
MI, ON, NY

Time of phase: 23rd May 16:49.

Storm name: 02A Basin: NI Start date: 28.05.1998 End date: 29.05.1998.
Maximum sustained wind: 35 knots.

Not a super-cyclone and the spells of 16:46 and 10:53 are very similar
(10 +6, where the rule is that spells where the times of the phases
are some 6 hours different are substantially the same spell. Thus: 6 =
12 = 18 = 24 and 1 = 7 = 13 etc.)

July 22, 2003."The Mid-South Derecho of 2003".AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC

Time of phase: 21st July 07:01.

Koni 08W NWP 15-Jul 22-Jul 65 Kn

Danny 05L NAT 16-Jul 20-Jul 65 Kn

Imbudo 09W NWP 16-Jul 24-Jul 09-May 85 Kn

Felicia 06E NEP 18-Jul 23-Jul 14-Feb??? -

- 06L NAT 19-Jul 21-Jul 30-Jan??? -

- 07L NAT 25-Jul 26-Jul 30 -

You'd have to verify these, my records have screwed up somehow, (Me
playing office worker with them, no doubt.) No super-cyclones, though
there were a lot of tropical cyclones extant at the time.

The MetO doesn't archive anything before summer 1995 (as far as I can
tell) so finding details for all the derechos given will be a little
more difficult.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDere...rechofacts.htm

Lunar phases: http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclips...hases1901.html

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ification.html

How about that then?

It appears (I stress the word appears) that is the time of the phase
is somewhere near 04:00, 10:00, 16:00 and 20:00 and there is no super-
cyclonic activity, there is a strong likelihood of a derecho occurring
in the US&A.

If the time of the phase is around 02:00, 08:00, 14:00 or 20:00 and
there is a super-cyclone, then again there is a strong likelihood of a
drencho occurring in the US&A.

Well, that's my take on it. Time will tell. Boy do I feel good. OK.
Say what you like -or better still, ignore me. If Newton could take it
so can I. Well this genius is off to bed. Today derechos tomorrow a
soffit and some facia board.

There's no time like the present for putting things off till later and
then not doing them. But why is it we put off going to bed till the
last minute and then want to stay there when it's time to get up?

Solve that and the weather will take care of itself.

Or not as the case may be.

It was at that point that nurse came along and gave him a nice
sedative.....

RonB

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
ps.com...
On Oct 12, 12:44 am, "paulus" wrote:
"Mike Tullett" wrote in
message

...

see

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...e.htm?list6034

I've been sat watching the movie for some time trying to work out the
mechanics of the whole system.

Not sure I understand everything!

You will understand a lot less listening to me:

July 4-5, 1999."The Boundary Waters-Canadian Derecho".ND, MN, ON, QB,
NH, VT, ME

Time of phase: 28th Jun 21:37.

Storm name: 02L Basin: NAT Start date: 03.07.1999 End date:
03.07.1999??? Maximum sustained wind: 30 knots

Storm name: BEATRIZ Basin:NEP Start date: 09.07.1999 End date:
16.07.1999 Maximum sustained wind: 105 knots.

A super-cyclone!

So the harmonic (or whatever this thing is caused by) has been
switched back 4 hours from 21: 37 to somewhere in the region of 17:37.
Which is meaningless except that the 37 minutes take the spell out to
where things are unstable for some inexplicable reason.

July 1995 Derecho Series Overview.Montana to New England July 12-13,
1995."The Right Turn Derecho".MT, ND, MN, WI, MI, ON, OH, PA, WV

July 14-15, 1995."The Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho".MI, ON, NY, VT, NH,
MA, CT, RI

Time of phase: 12th July 10:49.

Sept. 7, 1998."The Syracuse Derecho of Labor Day 1998".NY, PA, VT, MA,
NH

Sept. 7, 1998."The New York City Derecho of Labor Day 1998".MI, OH,
WV, PA, NJ, NY, CT

Time of phase: 3rd Sept 03:50.

Storm name: 07W Basin: NWP Start date: 02.09.1998 End date:
04.09.1998. Maximum sustained wind: 30 knots.

Storm name: JAVIER Basin: NEP Start date: 07.09.1998 End date:
11.09.1998. Maximum sustained wind: 45 knots.

Storm name: FRANCES Basin: NAT Start date: 08.09.1998 End date:
12.09.1998. Maximum sustained wind: 55 knots.

No super cyclones.

May 27-28, 2001."The People Chaser Derecho".KS, OK, TX

Time of phase: 23rd May 02:46.

Storm name: 01A Basin: NI Start date: 21.05.2001 End date: 28.05.2001.
Maximum sustained wind: 115 knots.

Another super-cyclone! This threw the spell from 02:46 to 22:46. (And
from the 46 minutes, unstable spell too.)

May 30-31, 1998."The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1998".MN, IA, WI,
MI, ON, NY

Time of phase: 23rd May 16:49.

Storm name: 02A Basin: NI Start date: 28.05.1998 End date: 29.05.1998.
Maximum sustained wind: 35 knots.

Not a super-cyclone and the spells of 16:46 and 10:53 are very similar
(10 +6, where the rule is that spells where the times of the phases
are some 6 hours different are substantially the same spell. Thus: 6 =
12 = 18 = 24 and 1 = 7 = 13 etc.)

July 22, 2003."The Mid-South Derecho of 2003".AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC

Time of phase: 21st July 07:01.

Koni 08W NWP 15-Jul 22-Jul 65 Kn

Danny 05L NAT 16-Jul 20-Jul 65 Kn

Imbudo 09W NWP 16-Jul 24-Jul 09-May 85 Kn

Felicia 06E NEP 18-Jul 23-Jul 14-Feb??? -

- 06L NAT 19-Jul 21-Jul 30-Jan??? -

- 07L NAT 25-Jul 26-Jul 30 -

You'd have to verify these, my records have screwed up somehow, (Me
playing office worker with them, no doubt.) No super-cyclones, though
there were a lot of tropical cyclones extant at the time.

The MetO doesn't archive anything before summer 1995 (as far as I can
tell) so finding details for all the derechos given will be a little
more difficult.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDere...rechofacts.htm

Lunar phases: http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclips...hases1901.html

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ification.html

How about that then?

It appears (I stress the word appears) that is the time of the phase
is somewhere near 04:00, 10:00, 16:00 and 20:00 and there is no super-
cyclonic activity, there is a strong likelihood of a derecho occurring
in the US&A.

If the time of the phase is around 02:00, 08:00, 14:00 or 20:00 and
there is a super-cyclone, then again there is a strong likelihood of a
drencho occurring in the US&A.

Well, that's my take on it. Time will tell. Boy do I feel good. OK.
Say what you like -or better still, ignore me. If Newton could take it
so can I. Well this genius is off to bed. Today derechos tomorrow a
soffit and some facia board.

There's no time like the present for putting things off till later and
then not doing them. But why is it we put off going to bed till the
last minute and then want to stay there when it's time to get up?

Solve that and the weather will take care of itself.

Or not as the case may be.

On Oct 12, 10:33 am, "Ron Button" wrote:
It was at that point that nurse came along and gave him a nice
sedative.....

Slightly later actually -and I slept a 12 hours stretch solid. Nice.

(Just got up.)