Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0535z, 13th October 2007

The latter half of the working week will see an upper ridge building
NE'wards over the UK. At the surface high pressure will move over England
and Wales, bringing further settled weather. Northern Ireland and Scotland
will be at greater risk of wind and rain, as a relatively tight gradient
will develop between complex low pressure near Iceland and the high to the
east or NE.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A large high covers England and Wales, bringing southerlies elsewhere. The
high moves away to the east tomorrow, leaving the UK under a mixture of
southerlies and SSE'lies. By Monday southerlies cover the whole of the UK as
a trough approaches from the west. The trough moves across the UK on
Tuesday, with WSW'lies for all.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a large ridge to the immediate west of the UK,
with the jet running southwards over the North Sea. At the 500hPa level
there's also a large ridge to the west, as is the case with ECM. NGP has an
upper ridge over eastern areas of the UK instead, while GEM brings a
relatively flat gradient aloft.
At the surface GFS brings a high over the UK with light winds for all. ECM
has a ridge over Ireland and WNW'lies for the UK, while southerlies affect
the UK with NGP, due to a high to the east. GEM brings a ridge over England
and Wales with WSW'lies elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows a high over SE England on day 6, with southerlies for much of the
UK. On day 7 the high moves eastwards, leaving SE England under a ridge and
allowing southerlies to persist elsewhere.
GFS brings high pressure over the North Sea on day 6, with a ridge over East
Anglia. Winds are generally southerlies over the UK. Southerlies and
SSE'lies affect the UK on day 7 as the high builds and moves slowly
eastwards.

Looking further afield
The ECM shows SSW'lies for all on day 8 as high pressure moves away to the
east. On day 9 the winds strengthen, with low pressure to the NE and a ridge
over France. On day 10 a weak ridge moves eastwards, bringing westerlies for
all.
GFS on day 8 shows further southerlies as high pressure declines to the NE.
A mixture of SE'lies and easterlies affects the UK on day 9 with high
pressure persisting to the NE. On day 10 a ridge covers England and Wales,
with SSE'lies elsewhere.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles for London continue to show 3 more warm days, followed by rain
on the 16th and a return to cooler (but dry) conditions.