Look what I have just found, 31st October 1946
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...lp19461031.gif

1946/7 Winter was one of the coldest & snowiest winters on record.


Forecast GFS 26 October 2007
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Paintshop link: http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/16030...331/407209.jpg


Spot the difference, albeit 6 days out.

"Bonos Ego" wrote in message
oups.com...
Look what I have just found, 31st October 1946
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...lp19461031.gif

1946/7 Winter was one of the coldest & snowiest winters on record.


Forecast GFS 26 October 2007
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Paintshop link:
http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/16030...331/407209.jpg


Spot the difference, albeit 6 days out.

Sheer coinincidence. Look at enough charts over the years and
you are bound to find some that look uncannily similar.
And let's face it with high pressure extending from the east over
the UK the distribution of highs/lows around it is always going
to follow the same general pattern.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On 21 Oct, 13:21, "Col" wrote:
"Bonos Ego" wrote in message

oups.com...

Look what I have just found, 31st October 1946
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...lp19461031.gif

1946/7 Winter was one of the coldest & snowiest winters on record.

Forecast GFS 26 October 2007
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Paintshop link:
http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/16030...331/407209.jpg

Spot the difference, albeit 6 days out.

Sheer coinincidence. Look at enough charts over the years and
you are bound to find some that look uncannily similar.
And let's face it with high pressure extending from the east over
the UK the distribution of highs/lows around it is always going
to follow the same general pattern.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Graham
Penzance
(where we've yet to record a maximum 15C this autumn, though there
have been a number of near misses since mid Sept.)

Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

"Jonathan Stott" wrote in message
...
Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various elements
of previous data?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail
---------------------------------
Probably means thay had similar October weather - only trouble is the cold
spell was January - March, and I don't think you can extrapolate for more
than a few days.
Dave

Jonathan Stott wrote:

Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?


Over forty years ago, the Met Office used matches with past years as part of
their monthly forecast. I soon lost confidence in this technique when, for
one forecast in late '63 I think, they used a match with the previous year.
My first reaction was that the UK weather was totally different for
the "similar" months. I checked the MWR's and found one was summarised as
sunny, dry and mild, whereas the other was dull, cool and damp. It didn't
give me much faith in the forecast and I was proved to be right.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]

In article ,
Jonathan Stott writes:
Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?


Yes. When the Met Office first released forecasts for a month ahead, in
the late 1960s and 1970s, IIRC that was how they attempted to do it. But
the forecasts weren't very successful, and were eventually dropped (or
at any rate no longer release to the general public).
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Oct 21, 3:18 pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Jonathan Stott" wrote in message

... Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various elements
of previous data?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather:http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

---------------------------------
Probably means thay had similar October weather - only trouble is the cold
spell was January - March, and I don't think you can extrapolate for more
than a few days.
Dave


I think someone else has said this before but recent years with a wet,
cooler than average summer and dry, warmer than average September/
October (of which there aren't many) have some correlation with a cold
winter - 1978,85,86. Does this extend back any further?

Nick

Wont get rid of my bmw x5 just yet.
Stranger things have happened.
We can but dream.
I remember in 1947 the coal froze together and had to be sledge hammered to
fit into the hod.
Jim

I remember in 1947 the coal froze together and had to be sledge hammered
to fit into the hod.
Jim
--------------------
Cue, shared room the size of a shoebox with five others and no central
heating........, thread . ;-)
Dave