Look what I have just found, 31st October 1946
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...lp19461031.gif

1946/7 Winter was one of the coldest & snowiest winters on record.


Forecast GFS 26 October 2007
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Paintshop link: http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/16030...331/407209.jpg


Spot the difference, albeit 6 days out.

"Bonos Ego" wrote in message
oups.com...
Look what I have just found, 31st October 1946
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...lp19461031.gif

1946/7 Winter was one of the coldest & snowiest winters on record.


Forecast GFS 26 October 2007
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Paintshop link:
http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/16030...331/407209.jpg


Spot the difference, albeit 6 days out.

Sheer coinincidence. Look at enough charts over the years and
you are bound to find some that look uncannily similar.
And let's face it with high pressure extending from the east over
the UK the distribution of highs/lows around it is always going
to follow the same general pattern.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On 21 Oct, 13:21, "Col" wrote:
"Bonos Ego" wrote in message

oups.com...

Look what I have just found, 31st October 1946
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...lp19461031.gif

1946/7 Winter was one of the coldest & snowiest winters on record.

Forecast GFS 26 October 2007
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Paintshop link:
http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/16030...331/407209.jpg

Spot the difference, albeit 6 days out.

Sheer coinincidence. Look at enough charts over the years and
you are bound to find some that look uncannily similar.
And let's face it with high pressure extending from the east over
the UK the distribution of highs/lows around it is always going
to follow the same general pattern.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Graham
Penzance
(where we've yet to record a maximum 15C this autumn, though there
have been a number of near misses since mid Sept.)

Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

"Jonathan Stott" wrote in message
...
Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various elements
of previous data?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail
---------------------------------
Probably means thay had similar October weather - only trouble is the cold
spell was January - March, and I don't think you can extrapolate for more
than a few days.
Dave

On Oct 21, 3:18 pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Jonathan Stott" wrote in message

... Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various elements
of previous data?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather:http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

---------------------------------
Probably means thay had similar October weather - only trouble is the cold
spell was January - March, and I don't think you can extrapolate for more
than a few days.
Dave


I think someone else has said this before but recent years with a wet,
cooler than average summer and dry, warmer than average September/
October (of which there aren't many) have some correlation with a cold
winter - 1978,85,86. Does this extend back any further?

Nick

Jonathan Stott wrote:

Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?


Over forty years ago, the Met Office used matches with past years as part of
their monthly forecast. I soon lost confidence in this technique when, for
one forecast in late '63 I think, they used a match with the previous year.
My first reaction was that the UK weather was totally different for
the "similar" months. I checked the MWR's and found one was summarised as
sunny, dry and mild, whereas the other was dull, cool and damp. It didn't
give me much faith in the forecast and I was proved to be right.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]

In article ,
Jonathan Stott writes:
Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?


Yes. When the Met Office first released forecasts for a month ahead, in
the late 1960s and 1970s, IIRC that was how they attempted to do it. But
the forecasts weren't very successful, and were eventually dropped (or
at any rate no longer release to the general public).
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Wont get rid of my bmw x5 just yet.
Stranger things have happened.
We can but dream.
I remember in 1947 the coal froze together and had to be sledge hammered to
fit into the hod.
Jim

John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Jonathan Stott writes:
Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?


Yes. When the Met Office first released forecasts for a month ahead, in
the late 1960s and 1970s, IIRC that was how they attempted to do it. But
the forecasts weren't very successful, and were eventually dropped (or
at any rate no longer release to the general public).

The Met Office were forced into issuing monthly forecasts by parliament
after the 1962-3 winter. The public had been picking up the US monthly
forecasts for the UK on the American Forces Radio during that winter and
had regarded them as accurate - which they were but they missed the start
of the thaw in March. Parliament and the public wanted to know why the Met
Office couldn't produce monthly forecasts. At the time, the Met Office had
been experimenting with these forecasts but did not regard them as being
accurate enough for publication. I think they reluctantly started
publication in 1963.

Matching of atmospheric patterns with previous years was only one of the
methods used by the Long-range Forecasting branch of the Met Office. They
also examined upper air patterns, looking for anchored troughs, dates when
the average wave-length could be expected to change, etc.; surface
conditions such as snow and ice cover and how these might affect
temperatures, development of surface pressure patterns, anchoring of cold
pools, etc.; sea-surface-temperature anomaly patterns and the subsequent
pressure anomalies associated with each type of anomaly pattern. Individual
meetings were held to discuss each topic and conclusions for the coming
month's weather made based on each topic alone. These would then be brought
together at the final meeting and the decision made on the forecast.

My subjective impression was that the most reliable of the methods was the
SST anomaly pattern. The problem I saw with long-range forecasting for the
UK was that it's such a tiny place. I've seen forecast pressure patterns
based on SST anomalies that were accurate for most of the Atlantic and
Europe but a small kink over the UK meant the forecast was totally wrong
for us. Also occasions when the pattern was correct but the forecast of the
associated weather was incorrect - happens with short-range forecasts as
well.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]