Although as pointed out elsewhere, the lack of rainfall for this
October is not particularly remarkable, taking the last three months
together (August, September & October so far), then the total rainfall
for Hurn (Bournemouth) is 93 mm, representing 43% of the 1971-2000
average.

Looking back at the record made available on the Met Office web site,
since 1957 there have only been two drier such periods: 1972 (81 mm)
and the driest, 1978 (67 mm), which latter included the driest October
at that station in the past 50 years. November 1978 was also very dry:
the driest such-named month in that period.

Looking at the ensemble output (GFES) I suspect we'll catch up a bit;
integrating the output from the 06Z run for our closest grid-point we
should put on roughly another 10 mm, which still means a dry spell
overall. The soil is drying out markedly again (at least on top) with
several days of strong sunshine recently. Over the last week, we've
averaged over 6 hours of 'bright' sunshine (KZS) each day, though the
sunshine total looks like being down on the month overall.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
Although as pointed out elsewhere, the lack of rainfall for this October
is not particularly remarkable, taking the last three months together
(August, September & October so far), then the total rainfall for Hurn
(Bournemouth) is 93 mm, representing 43% of the 1971-2000 average.

Looking back at the record made available on the Met Office web site,
since 1957 there have only been two drier such periods: 1972 (81 mm) and
the driest, 1978 (67 mm), which latter included the driest October at that
station in the past 50 years. November 1978 was also very dry: the driest
such-named month in that period.

Looking at the ensemble output (GFES) I suspect we'll catch up a bit;
integrating the output from the 06Z run for our closest grid-point we
should put on roughly another 10 mm, which still means a dry spell
overall. The soil is drying out markedly again (at least on top) with
several days of strong sunshine recently. Over the last week, we've
averaged over 6 hours of 'bright' sunshine (KZS) each day, though the
sunshine total looks like being down on the month overall.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk


Not only that, but have we had more rain in July at Hurn than in
Aug/sept/oct (so far) put together?

Just checking my own figures, have had he 37.2mm in August, 21mm in Sept,
and 20mm in Oct to date. Total 78.2mm.
That is less than May (88.6mm, and July (108mm) and only just more than June
(76.8mm).
It looks certain that these last three months put together will be drier
then July, and probably May as well.

Jim, Bournemouth.

On 23 Oct, 16:09, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
Although as pointed out elsewhere, the lack of rainfall for this
October is not particularly remarkable, taking the last three months
together (August, September & October so far), then the total rainfall
for Hurn (Bournemouth) is 93 mm, representing 43% of the 1971-2000
average.

Martin.


So far in Penzance just 37% of the 1971-2000 normal Aug-Oct rainfall
has occured so far. (113mm compared to a norm of 300.6mm). Easily my
driest ever Aug-Oct period (records start 1991)

Resvoir levels are now falling steadily. Stithians - which supplies
most of west Cornwall (though not Penzance, which is supplied by the
much smaller Drift) is now 64% full compared with 67% last week. At
the end of July it was 90% full.

Graham
Penzance

"Jim Smith" wrote in message
...


Not only that, but have we had more rain in July at Hurn than in
Aug/sept/oct (so far) put together?

.... 119 mm in July at Hurn.


Just checking my own figures, have had he 37.2mm in August, 21mm
in Sept, and 20mm in Oct to date. Total 78.2mm.
That is less than May (88.6mm, and July (108mm) and only just more
than June (76.8mm).
It looks certain that these last three months put together will be
drier then July, and probably May as well.

Jim, Bournemouth.





--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

In uk.sci.weather on Tue, 23 Oct 2007, Jim Smith wrote
:

Not only that, but have we had more rain in July at Hurn than in
Aug/sept/oct (so far) put together?

Just checking my own figures, have had he 37.2mm in August, 21mm in Sept,
and 20mm in Oct to date. Total 78.2mm.

That's less than I had on the 20th July alone!
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Martin Rowley" wrote ...
Although as pointed out elsewhere, the lack of rainfall for this
October is not particularly remarkable, taking the last three months
together (August, September & October so far), then the total
rainfall for Hurn (Bournemouth) is 93 mm, representing 43% of the
1971-2000 average.
.... in the end, the total for those three months is (subject to QC)
103 mm, representing 49% of the 1971-2000 LTA. This is thus the third
driest sequence of those months in the last 50 years.

Looking at the ensemble output (GFES) I suspect we'll catch up a
bit; integrating the output from the 06Z run for our closest
grid-point we should put on roughly another 10 mm, snip

.... perhaps of even more interest was this comment (above): the GFES
output, available here for example:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm

proved to be remarkably accurate (7 days ahead of the end of the
month) in suggesting ~10 mm additional rainfall from that date (23rd).

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk