Note: now that everyone else is back on GMT, wolf centre included, I'll go
back to issuing full rundowns on Sundays.

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0531, 28th October 2007

The run up to the weekend will see settled conditions for much of England
and Wales, although Northern Ireland and Scotland are at risk of seeing wind
and rain. Into the weekend the settled theme continues, but thereafter the
models diverge sharply. GFS shows the remants of TD16 giving a boost to
zonal conditions, with zonality lasting until the end of the run. ECM, on
the other hand, shows the tropical depression failing to cross the jet
stream, instead becoming trapped to the south of a large band of high
pressure. Thus with ECM the settled weather persists into the following
week. The track of the remnants of TD16 will be crucial, but at this stage
it's too early to say which way it'll go.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Strong SW'lies cover much of the UK, as a trough moves in from the west.
Tomorrow a trough covers the UK, bringing cooler WSW'lies. By Tuesday a
ridge approaches from the west, with westerlies for all. Wednesday sees
SW'lies for all as the ridge builds over England and Wales.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a large ridge over the UK, with a strong jet
crossing Iceland and southern Scandinavia. At the 500hPa level there's an
upper high over the Celtic Sea, while ECM has an upper ridge over England
and Wales and upper WSW'lies elsewhere. GEM has upper westerlies over the UK
and a ridge to the south. NGP also has a flat westerly flow aloft for the
UK.
At the surface GFS brings high pressure over the Celtic Sea, leading to
light winds over England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland lie under
southerlies. ECM has a high to the south and SW'lies across the UK,
strongest in the north. SW'lies also feature on the GEM chart, this time
with a high over France. NGP is the odd run out, with a high to the NW and
light NE'lies for most.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows high pressure building to the WNW on day 6, with high pressure
also to the SW. A trough covers Scotland, bringing WNW'lies to the north and
west, with westerlies for the rest of Scotland and the remainder of the UK.
On day 7 the highs merge and build to the west of Scotland, introducing
light NNW'lies and NE'lies for most of the UK.
GFS on day 6 shows a high over England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. On
day 7 the hgigh moves eastwards, allowing warm southerlies and SE'lies to
affect the UK.

Looking further afield
The ECM shows the high declining to the east of Scotland on day 8, still
with light winds for most. Day 9 sees the high build again over Denmark,
with a ridge over England and Wales. Winds are southerlies over Scotland and
Northern Ireland. On day 10 a ridge persists over England and Wales, with
SW'lies elsewhere.
GFS on day 8 brings a weak trough and light winds for England and Wales.
Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under westerlies. On day 9 a ridge brings
further light winds for England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. SW'lies
affect the whole of the UK on day 10 as a trough moves eastwards, in
association with the remnants of TD16.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles for London show a warm and dry start to the month, followed by
a return to closer to average conditions.

On Oct 28, 5:32 am, "Darren Prescott"
wrote:
Note: now that everyone else is back on GMT, wolf centre included, I'll go
back to issuing full rundowns on Sundays.

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0531, 28th October 2007

The run up to the weekend will see settled conditions for much of England
and Wales, although Northern Ireland and Scotland are at risk of seeing wind
and rain. Into the weekend the settled theme continues, but thereafter the
models diverge sharply. GFS shows the remants of TD16 giving a boost to
zonal conditions, with zonality lasting until the end of the run. ECM, on
the other hand, shows the tropical depression failing to cross the jet
stream, instead becoming trapped to the south of a large band of high
pressure. Thus with ECM the settled weather persists into the following
week. The track of the remnants of TD16 will be crucial, but at this stage
it's too early to say which way it'll go.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFShttp://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Strong SW'lies cover much of the UK, as a trough moves in from the west.
Tomorrow a trough covers the UK, bringing cooler WSW'lies. By Tuesday a
ridge approaches from the west, with westerlies for all. Wednesday sees
SW'lies for all as the ridge builds over England and Wales.

T+120 synopsishttp://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png/http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.pnghttp://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif/http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gifhttp://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif/http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a large ridge over the UK, with a strong jet
crossing Iceland and southern Scandinavia. At the 500hPa level there's an
upper high over the Celtic Sea, while ECM has an upper ridge over England
and Wales and upper WSW'lies elsewhere. GEM has upper westerlies over the UK
and a ridge to the south. NGP also has a flat westerly flow aloft for the
UK.
At the surface GFS brings high pressure over the Celtic Sea, leading to
light winds over England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland lie under
southerlies. ECM has a high to the south and SW'lies across the UK,
strongest in the north. SW'lies also feature on the GEM chart, this time
with a high over France. NGP is the odd run out, with a high to the NW and
light NE'lies for most.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows high pressure building to the WNW on day 6, with high pressure
also to the SW. A trough covers Scotland, bringing WNW'lies to the north and
west, with westerlies for the rest of Scotland and the remainder of the UK.
On day 7 the highs merge and build to the west of Scotland, introducing
light NNW'lies and NE'lies for most of the UK.
GFS on day 6 shows a high over England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. On
day 7 the hgigh moves eastwards, allowing warm southerlies and SE'lies to
affect the UK.

Looking further afield
The ECM shows the high declining to the east of Scotland on day 8, still
with light winds for most. Day 9 sees the high build again over Denmark,
with a ridge over England and Wales. Winds are southerlies over Scotland and
Northern Ireland. On day 10 a ridge persists over England and Wales, with
SW'lies elsewhere.
GFS on day 8 brings a weak trough and light winds for England and Wales.
Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under westerlies. On day 9 a ridge brings
further light winds for England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. SW'lies
affect the whole of the UK on day 10 as a trough moves eastwards, in
association with the remnants of TD16.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...a/ensdia.html- last
night's 18z)
The ensembles for London show a warm and dry start to the month, followed by
a return to closer to average conditions.

Interesting.

I was just looking at the tropical storm warnings wondering where the
hell things are going. My prescription for this spell is totally out
of whack -as it was for a similar period a couple of weeks back.

That left me flummoxed until some tropical storms showed up. Meanwhile
as Californians fall over themselves in a lemming like stroke of
genius to get out of the way of fires, several brown skinned people
have been killed by bad weather in places that the BBC can't seem to
reach.

Yes; I have been trying to watch the weather forecasts on the BBC
again. My mind just wonders off, agitated. I give up.