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Old October 29th 07, 05:35 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (29/10/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0534, 29th October 2007

The weekend will see high pressure influencing the UK. Northern areas might
see some cloud and rain on Saturday, but much of England and Wales should be
dry. Sunday should be settled across the UK as high pressure builds.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A trough covers the UK, with westerlies for most as a result. Tomorrow
westerlies persist as a ridge moves in from the west, followed by SW'lies on
Wednesday due to a ridge to the south. Thursday sees further SW'lies, with a
weak ridge to the NW in addition to the ridge to the south.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet across the North Atlantic and
Scotland, with the rest of the UK to the south of the jet. At the 500hPa
level there's an upper high over England and Wales, with upper westerlies
elsewhere. ECM has an upper high to the SW and westerlies aloft over the UK.
NGP has a ridge to the SW and NW'lies over teh UK, while GEM is similar to
GFS with an upper high to the south and westerlies aloft.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge over all areas except Scotland, which lies
under westerlies. ECM's ridge is further south, with westerlies for all. NGP
shows high pressure centred over Scotland, bringing SE'lies to Northern
Ireland and ENE'lies for England and Wales. GEM has a large high over the
English Channel, with SW'lies across the UK.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows high pressure building to the west on day 6, drawing NW'lies over
the UK. The high declines over the UK on day 7.
High pressure covers the UK on day 6, with light winds for most. There's
little change on day 7.

Looking further afield
The ECM shows a ridge over England and Wales on day 8, with SW'lies
elsewhere. On day 9 a trough crosses the UK, with NW'lies in its wake. Day
10 sees a large high to the west and a low over Denmark, with strong and
cold NNW'lies over the UK.
GFS on day 8 maintains high pressure over the UK, with light winds. Day 9
sees the high move northwards, with light NE'lies as a result for many. On
day 10 a ridge covers Scotland, with ENE'lies elsewhere.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles for London show a warm start to the month, with temperatures
falling steadily between the 3rd and the 8th.



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