Models been hinting at this for a while now. Still far too early for any
confidence but a mechanism is becoming apparent. After numerous trough
disruption episodes this month, finally something must give; I see two possible
scenarios:

1. A strong jet propagating east out of Canada, bringing us raging zonality and
mild.
2. A re-alignment of the block further east after a final trough disruption
bringing a Scandi high and a cold easterly.

Probably the final answer will be somewhere in between with the UK in a cold
air/mild air battleground situation, either way I feel that we must eventually
lose this mid-Atlantic ridge and all the northerlies and cut-off lows over UK.

Just a few rambling thoughts for a cold Monday evening!

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On 19 Nov, 20:55, "Will Hand" wrote:
Models been hinting at this for a while now. Still far too early for any
confidence but a mechanism is becoming apparent. After numerous trough
disruption episodes this month, finally something must give; I see two possible
scenarios:

1. A strong jet propagating east out of Canada, bringing us raging zonality and
mild.
2. A re-alignment of the block further east after a final trough disruption
bringing a Scandi high and a cold easterly.

Probably the final answer will be somewhere in between with the UK in a cold
air/mild air battleground situation, either way I feel that we must eventually
lose this mid-Atlantic ridge and all the northerlies and cut-off lows over UK.

Just a few rambling thoughts for a cold Monday evening!

Will.
--
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will,

I was wondering about this last night as I drove back in sleet to East
London after a freezing afternoon in Hove.

I was quite surpised at just how cold it was and it felt really raw
out in the wind.

It occured to me that the longer this pattern goes on for the more
chance it will have to get colder - I think this same set up next
month / January would have caused serious problems on the road and
rail network through heavy snow.

In message
,
Scott W writes
On 19 Nov, 20:55, "Will Hand" wrote:
Models been hinting at this for a while now. Still far too early for any
confidence but a mechanism is becoming apparent. After numerous trough
disruption episodes this month, finally something must give; I see
two possible
scenarios:

1. A strong jet propagating east out of Canada, bringing us raging
zonality and
mild.

In your heart of hearts Will, you know it will be 1. ;-))

Cheers
--
James Brown

On 19 Nov, 20:55, "Will Hand" wrote:
Models been hinting at this for a while now. Still far too early for any
confidence but a mechanism is becoming apparent. After numerous trough
disruption episodes this month, finally something must give

snip

I notice a nice agreement between the models for a cold northerly next
week. GFS going for daytime maxima of around 2c. I realise there's the
potential for overcooking as is its wont, but the inter-model
agreement is heartening.

Cheers
Richard

1. A strong jet propagating east out of Canada, bringing us raging zonality and
mild.

From about a week Thursday onwards if the ECMWF can be trusted :-((

Cheers
James
--
James Brown

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 19 Nov, 20:55, "Will Hand" wrote:
Models been hinting at this for a while now. Still far too early for any
confidence but a mechanism is becoming apparent. After numerous trough
disruption episodes this month, finally something must give

snip

I notice a nice agreement between the models for a cold northerly next
week. GFS going for daytime maxima of around 2c. I realise there's the
potential for overcooking as is its wont, but the inter-model
agreement is heartening.

Cheers
Richard
--------------------------
If it reverts to a NW'ly toppler I will continue to doubt the accuracy of
the GFS model for this situation at this range.
Dave

On 20 Nov, 14:28, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:

If it reverts to a NW'ly toppler I will continue to doubt the accuracy of
the GFS model for this situation at this range.
Dave

Oh yes - I was just playing fantasy 7-day forecasts. I often lay
weight to the longer range forecast if there's an agreement between
the models, but whose to say that they're not all wrong.

Already the midday 1s and 2s forecast for next Monday have been
replaced by 5s and 6s with the thrust of the colder air further east.

Move along now, nothing to see here !

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 20 Nov, 14:28, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:

If it reverts to a NW'ly toppler I will continue to doubt the accuracy of
the GFS model for this situation at this range.
Dave

Oh yes - I was just playing fantasy 7-day forecasts. I often lay
weight to the longer range forecast if there's an agreement between
the models, but whose to say that they're not all wrong.

Already the midday 1s and 2s forecast for next Monday have been
replaced by 5s and 6s with the thrust of the colder air further east.

Move along now, nothing to see here !

Richard
-----------------------
The thing is Richard, if we know that happens every single time with that
set up why doesn't the very expensive computer model?

Dave

On Nov 20, 6:37 pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...



On 20 Nov, 14:28, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:

If it reverts to a NW'ly toppler I will continue to doubt the accuracy of
the GFS model for this situation at this range.
Dave

Oh yes - I was just playing fantasy 7-day forecasts. I often lay
weight to the longer range forecast if there's an agreement between
the models, but whose to say that they're not all wrong.

Already the midday 1s and 2s forecast for next Monday have been
replaced by 5s and 6s with the thrust of the colder air further east.

Move along now, nothing to see here !

Richard

-----------------------
The thing is Richard, if we know that happens every single time with that
set up why doesn't the very expensive computer model?

Dave- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


What have I been saying. How can these models can give us something
as rare as a similar set up to say 62/63 and then revert back to the
default set up zonal is beyond me. It's the ECMWF turn tonight. As I
said, fantasy scenarios that have never happened . Have the models
been forced to undergo diversity training?

On 20 Nov, 18:37, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:

The thing is Richard, if we know that happens every single time with that
set up why doesn't the very expensive computer model?

Dave

One for the researchers to delve into! I guess there are so many
issues in NWP (resolving orography and the effect it has on flows, ice/
liquid microphysics parameterisations, the impact of horizontal and
vertical resolution on forecast accuracy to name but a few) that it's
a case of slowly chipping away at the issues.

Richard