On Nov 26, 12:08 pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The
actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on
the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO
probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen!

Am I the only one here that seeks the reasoning behind his forecasts?
From his site:

"The original central highest risk period for dangerous events
23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December.
This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word
meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main
storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) - i.e. resulting
from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed.

At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the
Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows,
i.e. exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential
storms on a par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the
UK and Western Europe."

http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands

It is a truth that with very "positive" North Atlantic sequences, very
deep lows occur and they tend to move laterally to the West Coast of
Europe and are very likely to hit Britain.

(Negative anomalies tend to go north at Greenland and even avoid
Norway.)

However I can't reconcile tornadic periods with strong winds except in
the vortices themselves.

As it happens I too see there are reasons to forecast tornadic
activity -either that or derechos (I'm not sure that's how to spell
that phenomenon, I'm not even certain I mean that sort of event
either.)

But here is an odd thing: The tornadic spell we should be getting due
to the lunar phase -which incidentally, runs over the same time
period; is subverted by hurricanes in the North West (Asian) Pacific.

This piece is revealing:

"Predicted solar effects make the present period one of rapid and
accelerating weather change for the whole of the north Atlantic region
from Greenland to St Petersburg and from North Norway to Belgium."

First off he is stating he uses the solar behaviour to forecast the
weather. Nothing new there but it is nice to have it writing. So long
as it unequivocal truth. He has every right to hide his methods but
not to tell lies.

Periods "of rapid and accelerating weather change" are not tornadic
spells. The background to those are settled, calm, humid periods but
of course marked striations show that things are somewhat different in
the upper air.

He has though, got the last bit right hasn't he? Between Iceland and
Greenland, the pressure changes some 46 millibars in 20 degrees
longitude, on one of these sea level charts:

http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...racknell+13 2

On the other hand such a situation is normal for this side of the
North Atlantic at this time of year.

Not all that much to go on. Pity Mike Tullet hasn't got an impartial
attitude. He might be clever but if his bent is only to deride the
man, he shows a stupid lack of insight.

On 26 Nov, 15:23, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Pity Mike Tullet hasn't got an impartial
attitude. He might be clever but if his bent is only to deride the
man, he shows a stupid lack of insight.

Like others who follow science rigorously, how can you give an
credence to someone who doesn't publish his methods? As well as his
brazen use of the popular press to amplify all of his remarks along
with his rather blinkered view on verification (judging from personal
replies to people on here) - don't you think we have grounds to be a
little sceptical and derisory?!

Then again - you're quite a rare breed so probably stand in Piers'
court on this one.

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 26 Nov, 12:42, Mike Tullett
wrote:

He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1]
webpage these words appear:

So despite the fact he trumpets about being able to forecast strong
winds up to a year in advance, he still makes changes when convenient.
You set out your stall as a long-range forecasting company and then
make alterations at short-return periods!! Hilarious.

Clearly he's seen the models pointing to a windy end of week. I wonder
if he'll extend the period further if such winds don't occur. What a
joker!

Richard

Might be worth extending it to the end of March just to be safe. Give me
strength !

Jon.

On 26 nov, 14:26, Mike Tullett
wrote:

And a Dutch TV station interviews an irate Corbyn, suggesting he was wrong.
It is a few minutes into the programme. He accuses the Dutch Met Service
(KNMI) of putting out false information. There follows a piece by two
weather presenters. I think they are asked about his "forecast" as the
word "superstorm" appears several times

http://player.omroep.nl/?aflID=59668...f62cbad4f05226...

Programme is "Kassa" - a fairly light-hearted consumer show.

The presenter

- compares 5 weather forecasts for a particular day from TV channels
and websites with the actual weather and says which is most accurate;
- visits "Meteoconsult" and decribes briefly how observations are
processed through models whose output is interpreted into a forecast;
- compares several forecasts for 2/3 days ahead and compares them with
the actual weather;
- interviews Piers Corbyn with subtitles;
- interviews 2 presenters whose forecasts turned out best in the
comparisons made earlier; asks them how they produce their forecasts;
asks them what they think of Piers Corbyn's long-term predictions.
They are just as sceptical as posters on here are ...

Colin Youngs
Brussels

Having long drawn out debates with this character's "mates" is all
very well.

To be honest, he'll just soak up yet more publicity.

The alternative choice would be: Ignore

Over-sensationlist media make me sick (look at the joke, The Weather
Channel has now become in the States)

Sorry, life is too short for this kind of trash

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 26 Nov, 15:23, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Pity Mike Tullet hasn't got an impartial
attitude. He might be clever but if his bent is only to deride the
man, he shows a stupid lack of insight.

Like others who follow science rigorously, how can you give an
credence to someone who doesn't publish his methods? As well as his
brazen use of the popular press to amplify all of his remarks along
with his rather blinkered view on verification (judging from personal
replies to people on here) - don't you think we have grounds to be a
little sceptical and derisory?!

Then again - you're quite a rare breed so probably stand in Piers'
court on this one.

Richard

---------------------
Had the mis-fortune of reading The Express on a return plane trip
yesterday(27th) . Corbyn has another big headline along the usual lines. At
least this time the Met Office were quoted and said they couldn't see any
similar dire signs. Other articles included a headline about a covent (sic)
schoolgirl being run over and all the TV listings were one hour out of
synch! You'd think two things journalists might be able to do is use a spell
checker and format a page. On the other hand...............

Dave.

On 28 Nov, 12:10, "Dave Cornwell"


Had the mis-fortune of reading The Express on a return plane trip
yesterday(27th) . Corbyn has another big headline along the usual lines. At
least this time the Met Office were quoted and said they couldn't see any
similar dire signs. Other articles included a headline about a covent (sic)
schoolgirl being run over and all the TV listings were one hour out of
synch! You'd think two things journalists might be able to do is use a spell
checker and format a page. On the other hand...............

The more we see of this, the better. Below is taken from

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/a...+us/article.do

-------------------------------------------
Piers Corbyn, from Weather Actions, uses solar activity to map
atmospheric changes. And he is convinced gales of up to 100mph could
arrive within the next week.

Low pressure weather systems could mean sea defences are breached in
particular on the south coast of England and at the Severn estuary.

He said: "We continue to forecast the British Isles and the North Sea
area are likely to be hit by a major storm and associated substorms
including possible tornado type events."

But the Met Office last night said there was no sign of a major storm
on the horizon.

Spokesman Dave Britton said: "Piers Corbyn's forecasts are yet to be
put up for scientific review. The Met Office is the official national
weather provider for the UK."
-------------------------------------------