Mike Tullett wrote:

On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:08:49 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in


I suppose he was only *80%* certain...

... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The
actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on
the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries
NO probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen!

He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1]
webpage these words appear:

"The original central highest risk period for dangerous events
23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December.
This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word
meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main
storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting
from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed.

At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the
Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows,
i.e. exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential
storms on a par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the
UK and Western Europe."

[1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands



The following also appears on the Weather Action website:

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Today, after 23 refinements to his method, Piers Corbyn is able to
forecast big storms with almost 100% accuracy, even years in advance.
In the eight month forecast delivered in December, 2006 Piers Corbyn
forecast not only the exceptionally rainy summer in Britain, but also
every strong rain and flood on the day. The only miss was the rain
front of August 5th ¡V 8th , which passed further North than predicted,
causing floods and mudslides in Scotland and not in the whole of
Britain. The success rate for ¡§normal weather¡¨ is on average 70-80%
and for extreme cold and dry periods, in between.
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I won't put my comments on a public forum!

Norman
--
Norman Lynagh
Chalfont St Giles, Buckinghamshire
85m a.s.l.
(remove "thisbit" twice to e-mail)