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Old December 3rd 07, 05:25 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (3/12/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0523, 3rd December 2007

The zonal setup continues. Mild, wet and windy weather will affect
much of the UK, although northern Scotland will at times see chillier
air pulled in from the north in the wake of lows. The weekend looks
particularly unsettled as a deep low crosses Scotland, bringing gales
for a time to many areas.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Low pressure lies to the east, with a ridge to the west and WNW'lies
for the UK. Tomorrow the ridge moves eastwards, leading to westerlies
and WSW'lies over the UK. Strong SSW'lies affect the UK on Wednesday,
with complex low pressure to the NW. The winds become WSW'lies on
Thursday as low pressure moves NE'wards to the north of the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart continues to show a very zonal jet over the North
Atlantic and the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a flat westerly
gradient over the UK, MetO shows a WNW'ly flow aloft, while ECM has a
trough to the east and upper NW'lies. GEM shows an upper low over the
North Sea and NW'lies as a result.
At the surface GFS brings SW'lies, with low pressure to the west. MetO
has a mixture of SW'lies and WSW'lies, with a weak ridge over the UK.
ECM brings strong NW'lies with a low over Denmark, while GEM has a
deep low over the North Sea and WNW'ly gales.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows a deep low to the NW on day 6 and an associated trough
moving eastwards over the UK. There are strong southerlies in advance
and SW'ly gales following behind. By day 7 the low lies over the North
Sea, with strong to gale force NW'lies for Northern Ireland and
Scotland and SW'lies elsewhere.
On day 6 the GFS brings a deep low over northern Scotland, with
westerly gales over much of the UK. The low fills over the North Sea
on day 7, with strong NW'lies and WNW'lies as a result.

Looking further afield
Day 8 with ECM sees lighter WNW'lies as low pressure fills over
Denmark. On day 9 a ridge covers the UK, with light westerlies. By day
10 much of the UK lies under a col with light winds.
The GFS shows SW'lies on day 8, with a trough to the NW. Day 9 sees
SSW'lies as the trough moves northwards, followed by strong
southerlies on day 10 due to a trough to the west.

Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/profi/en/
ensdia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z)
The ensembles for London continue to show a mild and zonal outlook.


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