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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0523, 3rd December 2007 The zonal setup continues. Mild, wet and windy weather will affect much of the UK, although northern Scotland will at times see chillier air pulled in from the north in the wake of lows. The weekend looks particularly unsettled as a deep low crosses Scotland, bringing gales for a time to many areas. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png Low pressure lies to the east, with a ridge to the west and WNW'lies for the UK. Tomorrow the ridge moves eastwards, leading to westerlies and WSW'lies over the UK. Strong SSW'lies affect the UK on Wednesday, with complex low pressure to the NW. The winds become WSW'lies on Thursday as low pressure moves NE'wards to the north of the UK. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart continues to show a very zonal jet over the North Atlantic and the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a flat westerly gradient over the UK, MetO shows a WNW'ly flow aloft, while ECM has a trough to the east and upper NW'lies. GEM shows an upper low over the North Sea and NW'lies as a result. At the surface GFS brings SW'lies, with low pressure to the west. MetO has a mixture of SW'lies and WSW'lies, with a weak ridge over the UK. ECM brings strong NW'lies with a low over Denmark, while GEM has a deep low over the North Sea and WNW'ly gales. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows a deep low to the NW on day 6 and an associated trough moving eastwards over the UK. There are strong southerlies in advance and SW'ly gales following behind. By day 7 the low lies over the North Sea, with strong to gale force NW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland and SW'lies elsewhere. On day 6 the GFS brings a deep low over northern Scotland, with westerly gales over much of the UK. The low fills over the North Sea on day 7, with strong NW'lies and WNW'lies as a result. Looking further afield Day 8 with ECM sees lighter WNW'lies as low pressure fills over Denmark. On day 9 a ridge covers the UK, with light westerlies. By day 10 much of the UK lies under a col with light winds. The GFS shows SW'lies on day 8, with a trough to the NW. Day 9 sees SSW'lies as the trough moves northwards, followed by strong southerlies on day 10 due to a trough to the west. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/profi/en/ ensdia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles for London continue to show a mild and zonal outlook. |
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