Look at the T+48 FAX VT 12Z Sat 8th. Hurricane force gradients round the
Atlantic low at 55N 23W.

GFS has 70 knot mean wind speeds - i.e force 12. Those winds are set to batter
the Cornish coast with 50 knot + WNW'lies on Sunday. I guess magicseaweed will
be predicting mammoth seas as that low will be moving almost with the wind?

I think our walk on the high moor on Sunday is going be a tad breezy too with
possibly wintry showers and sig. wind chill.

This is what happens when you have a 160 knot+ jet on your doorstep.

I'm also glad our yacht is in the boatyard on dry land :-)

Will.
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

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"Will Hand" wrote in
:

I'm also glad our yacht is in the boatyard on dry land :-)

Stop showing off, Hand!

Low looks v interesting - good sting jet candidate given the shape of the
low which looks like it's a classic frontal fracture / bent-back warm front
case judging by http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm422.gif

Would imagine that it's at its very worst over the sea, based on the
12z/18z runs?

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
9...
"Will Hand" wrote in
:

I'm also glad our yacht is in the boatyard on dry land :-)

Stop showing off, Hand!

Low looks v interesting - good sting jet candidate given the shape of the
low which looks like it's a classic frontal fracture / bent-back warm front
case judging by http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm422.gif

Would imagine that it's at its very worst over the sea, based on the
12z/18z runs?

Richard

I agree Richard. But I'm starting to get very concerned for the SW. Checked that
I had the telephone number for our local roofer in the unlikely event that we
loose a few slates. But exposed areas could be hit hard. 6Z GFS has a mean of
50-55 knots hitting North Devon coast circa midday Sunday. It is unstable air so
gusts could be 70 knots plus even over land. We intend to walk above 500m that
day, I might phone our leader later to see whether he is still up for it!

On a separate note I note that GFS once again intensifies the Scandi high
earlier bringing sub 850 hPa -5C into southern Britain off the continent as
early as next Thursday with light sleet/snow showers into the SE and parts of
Devon/Cornwall exposed to the E-SE wind.

Fascinating weather!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in
:

On a separate note I note that GFS once again intensifies the Scandi
high earlier bringing sub 850 hPa -5C into southern Britain off the
continent as early as next Thursday with light sleet/snow showers into
the SE and parts of Devon/Cornwall exposed to the E-SE wind.

Fascinating weather!

Although the low has done it's intensification to the west of the UK, there
is still quite a gradient there isn't there on the S/SW flank. T+48 GFS has
80 knots at 925mb just to the west of North Devon.

It's a good "weather" time at the moment - because of work I've been
concentrating on Sunday's low pressure and hadn't really paid much
attention to the forthcoming possible easterly !

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
9...
"Will Hand" wrote in
:

On a separate note I note that GFS once again intensifies the Scandi
high earlier bringing sub 850 hPa -5C into southern Britain off the
continent as early as next Thursday with light sleet/snow showers into
the SE and parts of Devon/Cornwall exposed to the E-SE wind.

Fascinating weather!

Although the low has done it's intensification to the west of the UK, there
is still quite a gradient there isn't there on the S/SW flank. T+48 GFS has
80 knots at 925mb just to the west of North Devon.

It's a good "weather" time at the moment - because of work I've been
concentrating on Sunday's low pressure and hadn't really paid much
attention to the forthcoming possible easterly !


The main event is definitely Sunday's low. there may be a sting in the tail too
as the low moves into the North Sea late Sunday into Monday. The pressure rise
in the following confluent ridge could be quite strong and may possibly increase
the gradient temporarily to give SE Britain a bit of a blow! Lower confidence in
this aspect though.

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in
:


The main event is definitely Sunday's low. there may be a sting in the
tail too as the low moves into the North Sea late Sunday into Monday.
The pressure rise in the following confluent ridge could be quite
strong and may possibly increase the gradient temporarily to give SE
Britain a bit of a blow! Lower confidence in this aspect though.

I was thinking similar but more what was keeping strong winds still present
in the south-west and not as far as SE England. GFS 12z coming out just now
follows similar evolution up to T+36 (that's all that's been updated as I
type, but slightly shallower centre).

Richard

On 6 Dec, 18:23, "Will Hand" wrote:
Look at the T+48 FAX VT 12Z Sat 8th. Hurricane force gradients round the
Atlantic low at 55N 23W.

GFS has 70 knot mean wind speeds - i.e force 12. Those winds are set to batter
the Cornish coast with 50 knot + WNW'lies on Sunday. I guess magicseaweed will
be predicting mammoth seas as that low will be moving almost with the wind?


Currently forecasting 40 ft or so at Sennen/Gwenver!
http://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Gwenv...dLongRange/uk/

Quite big now www.sennen-cove.com/todaysurf.htm (18' at Sevenstones)

Graham
Penzance

On Fri, 07 Dec 2007 15:44:24 GMT, Richard Dixon wrote in
. 99

"Will Hand" wrote in
:

The main event is definitely Sunday's low. there may be a sting in the
tail too as the low moves into the North Sea late Sunday into Monday.
The pressure rise in the following confluent ridge could be quite
strong and may possibly increase the gradient temporarily to give SE
Britain a bit of a blow! Lower confidence in this aspect though.

I was thinking similar but more what was keeping strong winds still present
in the south-west and not as far as SE England. GFS 12z coming out just now
follows similar evolution up to T+36 (that's all that's been updated as I
type, but slightly shallower centre).

The track seems to be a bit further north on this run, taking the centre
across NI rather than south of Ireland. This reduces the squeeze on the
southern flank a little.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 07/12/2007 15:53:54 GMT

On Fri, 07 Dec 2007 12:48:12 GMT, Richard Dixon
wrote:

.. T+48 GFS has
80 knots at 925mb just to the west of North Devon.

I must be misreading this. 925mb??!?

Robin Nicholson wrote in
:

On Fri, 07 Dec 2007 12:48:12 GMT, Richard Dixon
wrote:

. T+48 GFS has
80 knots at 925mb just to the west of North Devon.

I must be misreading this. 925mb??!?

Sorry - the wind speeds at 925mb - i.e. at the 925mb level - so above the
surface. I use it as a very ad-hoc way of estimating potential gusts.

Richard