Well according to UKMO outputs. On the face of it we have the continuation of
high pressure, but .... if you calculate the thickness from the 500 mb height
field you will see a 528 DAM cold pool migrating NW'wards on Tuesday across SW
England and Wales. Cold pools can give an hour or two of continuous snow
especially if it is deep and extends to 300 hPa level (which I cannot see), but
certainly something to watch out for despite the high pressure. Sea temps. could
enhance the snow too maybe giving substantial falls over high ground SW England
and Wales given the cold surface feed off the continent.

Will.
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"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well according to UKMO outputs. On the face of it we have the continuation
of
high pressure, but .... if you calculate the thickness from the 500 mb
height
field you will see a 528 DAM cold pool migrating NW'wards on Tuesday
across SW
England and Wales. Cold pools can give an hour or two of continuous snow
especially if it is deep and extends to 300 hPa level (which I cannot
see), but
certainly something to watch out for despite the high pressure. Sea temps.
could
enhance the snow too maybe giving substantial falls over high ground SW
England
and Wales given the cold surface feed off the continent.

Will.

Will, don't want to get you too excited but the 12Z EC operational run has
quite a bit of precipitation over the SW on Tuesday and Wednesday; seemingly
tied to a disturbance moving north from Biscay. The 12Z GM has the cold pool
of sorts again moving NW across southern parts but little precipitation this
time and hence didn't look as threatening. I'm putting the sledge purchase
on hold for now but something to keep an eye on !

Jon.

Its rather ironic looking at the T+132 with Majorca in sub 528 air !!
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

Phil

On 12 Dec, 20:23, "Phil Layton" wrote:
Its rather ironic looking at the T+132 with Majorca in sub 528 air !!http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

Phil

The 06Z GFS has an interesting possible scenario for SW Britain coming
into next Wednesday...

Richard

On 12 Dec, 18:39, "Will Hand" wrote:
Well according to UKMO outputs. On the face of it we have the continuation of
high pressure, but .... if you calculate the thickness from the 500 mb height
field you will see a 528 DAM cold pool migrating NW'wards on Tuesday across SW
England and Wales. Cold pools can give an hour or two of continuous snow
especially if it is deep and extends to 300 hPa level (which I cannot see), but
certainly something to watch out for despite the high pressure. Sea temps. could
enhance the snow too maybe giving substantial falls over high ground SW England
and Wales given the cold surface feed off the continent.

Will.
--

Glad to see it's only SW England & Wales affected, and that Cornwall's
not mentioned. Quite chilly enough for me today now we've picked up a
fresh SE. It might not reach 10C in Penzance, and that's only happened
once so far since the summer (8.5C on 23rd Nov).

Nice & sunny again though.

Little update on Sundays gale. The emergency services got around 50
call outs, mainly for fallen trees & power cables. There were 4 boats
sunk in St Ives harbour, and a broken mast crushed a car next to
Penzance harbour. There were a number of road closures including the
A30 near Newlyn Coombe.

Graham
Penzance

Still looking good for Dartmoor next Tuesday.

Met Office Link:
http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/16030...331/416818.jpg

GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

ECMWF http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

I like the met office one best

Jim

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 12 Dec, 20:23, "Phil Layton" wrote:
Its rather ironic looking at the T+132 with Majorca in sub 528 air
!!http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

Phil

The 06Z GFS has an interesting possible scenario for SW Britain coming
into next Wednesday...

Richard

That run of the GFS looks very similar to EC from yesterday but today's
output from EC keeps the precipitation offshore. The raw GM looks consistent
with the finalised MetO charts and highlights the risk
http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/Gif...ynoptic120.gif. If it comes off
determining the precip. type looks tricky again.. e.g. rain/drizzle on
coasts but sleet/snow/snow grains inland.

Sledge order still on hold.

Jon. (east Devon)

On 13 Dec, 13:29, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
" determining the precip. type looks tricky again.. e.g. rain/drizzle on
coasts but sleet/snow/snow grains inland.

Sledge order still on hold.

Jon. (east Devon)

I would certainly agree the precipitation on the coast (i.e
Teignmouth) will be rain/drizzle. With the wind coming in off the sea
at around 12c, and the salty air, there is little chance of any of the
white stuff on the South Devon coast.

Will maybe a bit more lucky though up at Haytor.

On 13 Dec, 13:29, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:

If it comes off,
determining the precip. type looks tricky again.. e.g. rain/drizzle on
coasts but sleet/snow/snow grains inland.

Judging by the latest GFS, the northern extent of any precip could be
a difficult one to call as well, as you might expect with a large high
wobbling around - appears to be more centrally placed over the UK next
Tuesday in the midday run.

Richard