Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Wednesday.
Issued 0525, 15th December 2007

The latter half of the working week will see high pressure to the east
moving slowly eastwards, with SE'lies and ESE'lies for much of the UK. By
the pre-Christmas weekend both the ECM and GFS continue to show the high
moving away to the SE and allowing the Atlantic influence to return with wet
and windy weather by Christmas Eve.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
High pressure covers the Baltic, with a ridge SW'wards over the North Sea,
England and Wales. Winds are moderate southerlies for Scotland and Northern
Ireland, with lighter winds elsewhere. Tomorrow the high moves over Denmark,
introducing easterlies to much of England and Wales. Scotland and Northern
Ireland still lie under southerlies and there's little change on Monday as
the high moves westwards. By Tuesday the high is centred over the North Sea,
bringing ENE'lies to England and Wales with SE'lies and southerlies
elsewhere.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
Yet again the jetstream chart shows a diffulent jet to the west, with a weak
easterly flow over the UK. At the 500hPa l evel there's an upper high
extending from Scotland to Germany, with upper easterlies elsewhere. MetO
has an upper high over Poland and a ridge WNW'wards, leading to an easterly
gradient aloft for the UK. ECM brings an upper high over the UK and the
North Sea, while NGP has a ridge to the NE and an upper low over NW France,
with upper easterlies for the UK.GEM has an upper ridge over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings high prressure over most of the UK, with
easterlies for SW England as a weak trough moves NW'wards to the SW. MetO
has a ridge over Scotland and easterlies elsewhere, with a low to the SW.
ECM brings high pressure over the UK and the North Sea, with a mixture of
easterlies and SE'lies for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. NGP has low
pressure over the English Channel with moderate easterlies and ENE'lies over
the UK, while GEM shows high pressure to the east and light winds for
England and Wales; Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under brisk SW'lies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the high declining in situ on days 6 and 7, with SE'lies for
Scotland and Northern Ireland and with easterlies and ENE'lies elsewhere.
The GFS shows ESE'lies for all on day 6 as the high moves NE'wards over
Germany. ESE'lies continue on day 7 with the high moving SE'wards.

Looking further afield
Day 8 with the ECM shows the high extending SE'wards, still with SE'lies and
easterlies over the UK. On day 9 a trough approaches from the west, leading
to SE'lies for all. The trough disrupts over the UK on day 10, with SE'lies
in eastern areas and NW'lies elsewhere.
The GFS shows southerlies and SE'lies on day 8 with a low to the west and
the high by now over the Black Sea. Low pressure fills to the west on
Christmas Eve, bringing southerlies and SSE'lies, followed by strong
southerlies and SW'lies on Christmas Day.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles for London still show a dry week ahead.

Just for fun!
*A daily look at charts for 12z on Christmas Day* - will return tomorrow
with extra models!

Darren Prescott wrote:
snippy


Just for fun!
*A daily look at charts for 12z on Christmas Day* - will return tomorrow
with extra models!



Cool - thanks for doing your model interpretations so faithfully. Its
one of the first things I read when I log on in the morning.

On Dec 15, 5:26 am, "Darren Prescott"
wrote:

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Wednesday.
Issued 0525, 15th December 2007

The latter half of the working week will see high pressure to the east
moving slowly eastwards, with SE'lies and ESE'lies for much of the UK.

By the pre-Christmas weekend both the ECM and GFS continue to show the
high moving away to the SE and allowing the Atlantic influence to return with
wet and windy weather by Christmas Eve.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png

High pressure covers the Baltic, with a ridge SW'wards over the North Sea,
England and Wales. Winds are moderate southerlies for Scotland and Northern
Ireland, with lighter winds elsewhere.

Tomorrow the high moves over Denmark, introducing easterlies to much of
England and Wales.

Scotland and Northern Ireland still lie under southerlies and there's little change
on Monday as the high moves westwards.

By Tuesday the high is centred over the North Sea, bringing ENE'lies to
England and Wales with SE'lies and southerlies elsewhere.

T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015....pse_cartes.php
Yet again the jet-stream chart shows a diffluent jet to the west, with a weak
easterly flow over the UK.

At the 500hPa level there's an upper high
extending from Scotland to Germany, with upper easterlies elsewhere.

MetO has an upper high over Poland and a ridge WNW'wards, leading to an
easterly gradient aloft for the UK. ECM brings an upper high over the UK and the
North Sea, while NGP has a ridge to the NE and an upper low over NW France,
with upper easterlies for the UK.

GEM has an upper ridge over the UK.

At the surface GFS brings high pressure over most of the UK, with
easterlies for SW England as a weak trough moves NW'wards to the SW.

MetO has a ridge over Scotland and easterlies elsewhere, with a low to the SW.

ECM brings high pressure over the UK and the North Sea, with a mixture of
easterlies and SE'lies for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

NGP has low pressure over the English Channel with moderate easterlies and
ENE'lies over the UK, while GEM shows high pressure to the east and light
winds for England and Wales; Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under brisk
SW'lies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the high declining in situ on days 6 and 7, with SE'lies for
Scotland and Northern Ireland and with easterlies and ENE'lies elsewhere.

The GFS shows ESE'lies for all on day 6 as the high moves NE'wards over
Germany. ESE'lies continue on day 7 with the high moving SE'wards.

Looking further afield

Day 8 with the ECM shows the high extending SE'wards, still with SE'lies and
easterlies over the UK. On day 9 a trough approaches from the west, leading
to SE'lies for all. The trough disrupts over the UK on day 10, with SE'lies
in eastern areas and NW'lies elsewhere.

The GFS shows southerlies and SE'lies on day 8 with a low to the west and
the high by now over the Black Sea. Low pressure fills to the west on
Christmas Eve, bringing southerlies and SSE'lies, followed by strong
southerlies and SW'lies on Christmas Day.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...a/ensdia.html- last
night's 18z)
The ensembles for London still show a dry week ahead.

Just for fun!
*A daily look at charts for 12z on Christmas Day* - will return tomorrow
with extra models!

Do you feed a lot of paragraph spacings to the bloody wolves, then?

Where is the prognostication for Monday? Anyone got a link to save me
looking?

Cool - thanks for doing your model interpretations so faithfully. Its one
of the first things I read when I log on in the morning.

Yes, thanks Darren. Your work is much appreciated and your daily model
interpretation is the first thing I look at when I access uk.sci.weather.

Have a great Xmas.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
...

Do you feed a lot of paragraph spacings to the bloody wolves, then?
They wouldn't appreciate paragraphs, they're really not literary minded.

Your newsreader seems to be to blame for the extra paragraphs by the way, I
post the analysis in good old fashioned 80s style plain text. If you go here
you'll see the post as it should appear:

http://tinyurl.com/3cpv6w

If you see anything different to that, then I'd suggest checking your
newsreader settings.

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message news:b086744f-5d00-4bc1-92f5-
Where is the prognostication for Monday? Anyone got a link to save me
looking?
Here you go, assuming you check this before about half five tomorrow
morning...

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1.gif