It's that time of month - and even year - when the guestimates start...: I
notice that the Sunday papers have been reporting that it will be the seond
warmest year on record quoting the CET (but also global temperatures - but
not really clear which they really refer to).

For Birmingham (Winterbourne), despite all it inadequencies, assuming that
the rest of the month will be at the 1881-2006 average, it will be the 13th
wamest overall (noteably only the 45th warmest minimum temperatures, but 5th
warmest maximums), although the mean annual temperatures, since 1990 are
currently increasing at 0.5C per decade after ~ 40 years of near zero
increases. Interestingly though, comparing the CET with the Birmingham
temperature data shows that the CET is increasing 0.1C more per decade: the
CET supposedly 'corrects' of UHI effects (which Birmingham does not) - which
means that the 'raw' data would have an even large discrepency. Anyone else
notice this?

Chris

On 17 Dec, 19:51, "CHRIS KIDD" wrote:
It's that time of month - and even year - when the guestimates start...: I
notice that the Sunday papers have been reporting that it will be the seond
warmest year on record quoting the CET (but also global temperatures - but
not really clear which they really refer to).


Well, in Penzance (my records start 1992) the 1st 11 months saw an
average temperature of 12.9C, beating the previous record of 12.7 in
2003. So far the average temperaure this December is higher than 2003,
so 2007 looks set to be my warmest ever.

Graham
Penzance

On Dec 17, 7:51�pm, "CHRIS KIDD" wrote:

For Birmingham (Winterbourne), despite all it inadequencies, assuming that
the rest of the month will be at the 1881-2006 average, it will be the 13th
wamest overall (noteably only the 45th warmest minimum temperatures, but 5th
warmest maximums), although the mean annual temperatures, since 1990 are
currently increasing at 0.5C per decade after ~ 40 years of near zero
increases. Interestingly though, comparing the CET with the Birmingham
temperature data shows that the CET is increasing 0.1C more per decade: the
CET supposedly 'corrects' of UHI effects (which Birmingham does not) - which
means that the 'raw' data would have an even large discrepency. Anyone else
notice this?

Chris

My record, which begins in 1991, also shows the mean annual
temperature increasing at 0.5C per decade. Just assuming my current
mean temperature for Dec is the same at the end of the month, this
year will rank 6th warmest when averaging to the nearest one hundreth
of a degree.

Dick Lovett
Charlbury (Oxfordshire Cotswolds) 121m

In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 17 Dec 2007, CHRIS KIDD
wrote :

It's that time of month - and even year - when the guestimates start...: I
notice that the Sunday papers have been reporting that it will be the seond
warmest year on record quoting the CET (but also global temperatures - but
not really clear which they really refer to).

The notion that this will be one of the warmest years on record is
somewhat counter-intuitive, given the crappy summer we had.

On my records, it looks like this will be the coolest of the last 4
years.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"CHRIS KIDD" wrote in message
news
It's that time of month - and even year - when the guestimates start...: I
notice that the Sunday papers have been reporting that it will be the
seond warmest year on record quoting the CET (but also global
temperatures - but not really clear which they really refer to).


It's standing in sixth place, according to my calculations, and using the
1971-2000 mean for December. December is presently (as of the 17th)
running at 0.1degC above the long-term mean. It'll drop a bit then probably
rise a bit over Christmas, but I doubt it'll be much more than 0.5degC
above by the end of the month, although that might be enough to lift
it a couple of places.
http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

Philip

With my current mean at 11.8C (Jan - Nov) and this December still above
'normal', this has certainly been the warmest year I have ever recorded but
that doesn't say much because my records only go back to 2005 for Devon (and
1988 for Worcester).

And this has been a La Nina year which supposedly has an effect of
suppressing temperatures, and also we had a generally cool/average summer.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

.... based on Hurn data (since 1957), so far we are running second
warmest in that 51 year record, with a value of 11.2°C (+1.1degC
1971-2000 mean, +1.4degC 1961-1990 mean). Last year (2006) was the
warmest year with 11.3°C.

In the 1960s, 4 years had annual means =10
In the 1970s, 4 years had annual means =10
In the 1980s, 5 years had annual means =10
In the 1990s, 7 years had annual means =10
In the 2000s, (so far), *all* years have had annual means =10

Until the 1990s, *no* year had an annual mean =11
In the 1990s, one year (1995) was so blessed, but only just (11.1)
In the 2000s, 3 years (2002, 2006, 2007) were =11.

I can't, however, comment upon the homogeneity of the data as I don't
know enough about the site and/or instrument changes that would have
taken place.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...
"CHRIS KIDD" wrote in message
news
It's that time of month - and even year - when the guestimates start...:
I notice that the Sunday papers have been reporting that it will be the
seond warmest year on record quoting the CET (but also global
temperatures - but not really clear which they really refer to).


It's standing in sixth place, according to my calculations, and using the
1971-2000 mean for December. December is presently (as of the 17th)
running at 0.1degC above the long-term mean. It'll drop a bit then
probably
rise a bit over Christmas, but I doubt it'll be much more than 0.5degC
above by the end of the month, although that might be enough to lift
it a couple of places.
http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

Philip

My current mean for 2007 is 11.1°C which is lower than the 2006 value of
11.3°C which is the highest value I have recorded since installing my
station in late 2001.

Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans
101m ASL