Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Friday. Issued
0613z, 25/08/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
A deep (975hPa) low lies over the North Sea, bringing strong to gale force
northerlies and NNW'lies over the UK. The strongest winds are over NE
England, severe gale force. The low fills as it moves over Denmark at T+144,
leaving the UK under moderate NW'lies. The winds become moderate westerlies
for most at T+168, as a secondary low moves over southern Norway.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies under moderate northerlies, with a trough over Scandinavia and
high pressure to the WNW. The high sinks southwards at T+144, bringing
NW'lies to northern Scotland and northerlies elsewhere.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
The GFS run shows a moderate northerly flow over the UK, with lows over
France and the Czech Republic. The lows merge and move away to the NE at
T+120, leaving the UK under slightly lighter northerlies. 850hPa
temperatures range from -1C over NE Scotland to +5C over SE England. The
winds become NNW'lies and NW'lies at T+144, due to a trough to the ENE of
Scotland. Lighter northerlies and NNW'lies move over the UK by T+168, as
high pressure drifts eastwards slowly towards the UK. By day 8 the
(declining) high covers the UK, with light winds for all. The high builds
over the UK on day 9, but by day 10 it moves eastwards, bringing light winds
over the SE half of England, with moderate SSW'lies elsewhere.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120_e.html
High pressue lies well to the west of the UK, with low pressure over
Scandinavia. This leads to moderate north or NNW'lies over the UK. The low
fills at T+144, although moderate northerlies and NW'lies continue to affect
the UK. The winds become slightly lighter northerlies and NNW'lies at T+168
as the low fills over southern Scandinavia. The same is true on days 8 and
9; by day 10 a trough brings light winds over England and Wales, with a
ridge and northerlies over Scotland. Northern Ireland lies under NE'lies.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
In a similar setup to the other runs, northerlies and NW'lies cover the UK,
with low pressure over the Baltic and a high to the SW of Iceland. 850hPa
temperatures range from +1C over NW Scotland to +4C over southern England.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The T+108 chart shows low pressure over Scandinavia and high pressure to the
west, with northerlies or NW'lies over the UK.

In summary, the runs today show a cool spell of weather approaching, with
northerlies or NW'lies affecting all of the UK at some stage next weekend.
There are large differences with regards to the track and intensity of the
lows again, so as ever more runs are needed.

There are large differences with regards to the track and intensity of the
lows again, so as ever more runs are needed.

Darren,

Thanks once again for a superb round up. It will be very interesting to see
how the new GFS forecasts handle this Autumn with regards to depressions.
Earlier this year the model increased resolution to 0.5 degrees and added
new QuickScat data to the mix plus increases in AMDAR (Aircraft
Meteorological Data Relay) in the hope of increasing the accuracy of the
forecasts for cyclogenesis and tracking. Unsure as to what improvements have
been made to the UKMO models, perhaps Will may know? But I am very excited
(well, not that excited) about the GFS forecasting prospects this coming
Winter.

Regards

A

"Andrew Bond" wrote in message
snip
Unsure as to what improvements have been made to the UKMO models
snip

Andrew,
The NWP Gazette normally details any significant developments to the MetO's
model suite,
http://www.metoffice.com/research/nw...tte/index.html
The June issue may be delayed due to relocation.

Talking of relocation I've now swapped sunny Dorset for seemingly equally as
sunny Devon. Doubt my prospects for seeing a bit of snow have improved much
unless I go climbing over on Mt. Haytor
:-) I aim to set up some basic observing equipment but don't hold your
breath !

The switch to forecasting operations at Exeter (currently scheduled for
Wednesday) also marks the end of a very distinguished career, Martin
(Rowley) you'll be greatly missed.

Jon. (10miles-ish NE of Exeter)

Jon,

Thanks for that, will be interesting to see how/when/if the UKMO incorporate
the new Meteosat information into their models, also interesting to see that
the UKMO model also incorporates the QuickScat data from NWS... wonder if
you guys are having the same problems as NWS with regards to
over-compensation of rainfall amounts since the incorporation of the
QuickScat data.

Sorry to hear about Martin, off to bigger and better things no doubt, hope
you're enjoying gorgeous Devon Jon.

Cheers

A

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Andrew Bond" wrote in message
snip
Unsure as to what improvements have been made to the UKMO models
snip

Andrew,
The NWP Gazette normally details any significant developments to the
MetO's
model suite,
http://www.metoffice.com/research/nw...tte/index.html
The June issue may be delayed due to relocation.

Talking of relocation I've now swapped sunny Dorset for seemingly equally
as
sunny Devon. Doubt my prospects for seeing a bit of snow have improved
much
unless I go climbing over on Mt. Haytor
:-) I aim to set up some basic observing equipment but don't hold your
breath !

The switch to forecasting operations at Exeter (currently scheduled for
Wednesday) also marks the end of a very distinguished career, Martin
(Rowley) you'll be greatly missed.

Jon. (10miles-ish NE of Exeter)