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Old January 9th 08, 05:41 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (9/01/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0539, 9th Jan 2008

It's looking very wet and windy for at least the first half of next week,
with deep lows passing close to (or over) the UK. Temperatures will continue
to be near normal in the north and rather above average in the south.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A deep low covers Scotland, with strong SW'lies elsewhere. Tomorrow SSW'lies
affect the UK as another low approaches from the west. Friday sees the low
fill to the SW, with a weak ridge over England and Wales. By then winds are
SSW'lies for England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. On Saturday low
pressure moves over the North Sea, introducing NW'lies across the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong and very zonal jet over the North
Atlantic, with a weak trough over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's an
upper low to the west, as is the case with MetO and ECM. NGP brings upper
SW'lies with a low further to the west, while GEM has an upper low over the
UK.
At the surface GFS brings southerlies for all with low pressure to the west.
MetO also has a low to the west with southerlies, as is the case with ECM
for most - although the far north of Scotland lies under easterlies. NGP
brings southerlies with low pressure further to the west and GEM has a low
over the UK.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings SW'lies over much of the UK on day 6, with low pressure over
Scotland. On day 7 a new low deepens to the west, resulting in southerlies.
GFS has low pressure to the north on day 6, leading to strong SSW'lies. The
winds become westerlies on day 7, with a weak ridge moving eastwards.

Looking further afield
ECM shows a trough crossing the UK on day 8, leading to westerlies and
WSW'lies. On day 9 another trough approaches from the west, leading to
SSE'lies in advance and SW'lies following behind. On day 10 low pressure
lies to the north, with strong SW'lies for all.
GFS brings a col over Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 8, with
westerlies elsewhere. On day 9 the jet buckles and a low deepens to the SW,
leading to strong southerlies and SE'lies. By day 10 strong SW'lies affect
the UK as low pressure deepens to the north.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles persist in showing a mobile setup for the forseeable future.
Today's operational GFS was a mild outlier in the second half of the run.


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