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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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I'm off to the Alps in a week and as such have been examining the GFS
Ensembles. I've noticed that the ensembles have been quite consistent with high pressure expected to build to the north/west [of the Alps] allowing cooler/colder conditions to prevail. Yet the actual operational run seems to be quite keen to maintain the high over Spain with, no ridge to the north, [and bring freezing levels up to nearly 3000m, not good for skiing] On a number of occasions is has been a clear outlier. Is there any explanation for this? Does the operational run, over time, hold greater weight over the other perturbations? Should I be nervous about getting ‘milded out’ |
#2
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#4
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On Jan 14, 12:28 pm, wrote:
I'm off to the Alps in a week and as such have been examining the GFS Ensembles. I've noticed that the ensembles have been quite consistent with high pressure expected to build to the north/west [of the Alps] allowing cooler/colder conditions to prevail. Yet the actual operational run seems to be quite keen to maintain the high over Spain with, no ridge to the north, [and bring freezing levels up to nearly 3000m, not good for skiing] On a number of occasions is has been a clear outlier. Is there any explanation for this? Does the operational run, over time, hold greater weight over the other perturbations? Should I be nervous about getting 'milded out' 15th Jan (19:46) So this is the last day of a most interesting spell. Unfortunately the next one is somewhat similar, so expect very little change in the GEM and GFS charts. 11:37 is as near to 12:00 as 19:46 is to 18:00 and damn it is to swearing. And the expected situation on this chart: http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html at these times is: A standing Low Pressure area situated somewhat to the left of the Great Lakes. With a complex set of High pressure areas trying to break through from the west. http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...6a556cd238f8e3 |
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