Below is on the Met Office site today: - but wasn't last January's warmth
blamed on El Nino? So either way, we will get mild and wet Januarys?


Is La Niña to blame for the poor weather and the flooding? Climate expert Dr
Adam Scaife explains.

Although not completely responsible there are links between La Niña and
mild, wet and windy weather in our region in late winter.

La Niña is a marine phenomenon which cools the equatorial seas of the
Pacific, especially towards South America. As La Niña takes hold the main
focus for warm rising air shifts to the west Pacific, which has an impact on
the atmosphere. This impact travels out of the tropics and interacts with
the jet stream - a ribbon of very strong winds in the upper atmosphere which
largely determines where the weather systems that bring rain to the UK will
develop and move across western Europe.

This year's La Niña is likely to turn out to be the strongest since 1988-89,
about 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) cooler than normal, thus having an increased affect on
the jet stream. The strengthened jet stream helped to develop more powerful
wet and windy depressions, which it then steered across the Atlantic. This
week the jet stream has brought those depressions across the south-west of
England - in almost exactly the same areas as in the summer.

La Niña, and its opposite El Niño, are two of the elements taken into
consideration in our seasonal forecast and conditions so far this winter
have been consistent with the outcome we predicted as most likely.

On 22 Jan, 13:16, "Chris Kidd" wrote:
Below is on the Met Office site today: - but wasn't last January's warmth
blamed on El Nino? So either way, we will get mild and wet Januarys?

Is La Niña to blame for the poor weather and the flooding? Climate expert Dr
Adam Scaife explains.

Although not completely responsible there are links between La Niña and
mild, wet and windy weather in our region in late winter.

I think this is the same article Will pointed out in an earlier
thread.

Touble is, the SW is specifically mentioned when it hasn't been a wet
winter down in Cornwall. In fact November & December were both dry,
and January to date has seen 113.2mm, when the 1971-2000 norm for
January in Penzance is 141.3mm. The last wet January was 181.2mm in
2004. Also, it wasn't a particularly wet summer here. June/July/Aug
saw 294.9mm. Rather wet, but much less than the 394.3mm in 1997.

Graham
Penzance

On 22 Jan, 14:28, Graham Easterling
wrote:

I think this is the same article Will pointed out in an earlier
thread.

Touble is, the SW is specifically mentioned when it hasn't been a wet
winter down in Cornwall.

If anything, the jet is going "up and over" towards Scandinavia at the
moment - would be interesting to look at a jetstream anomaly for this
winter to see how it compares to a climatological norm.

Richard

Ah,but if you really want to be confused try and get your mind around Joes
latest missive ,
mind blowing !

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather


r
ronB

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 22 Jan, 14:28, Graham Easterling
wrote:

I think this is the same article Will pointed out in an earlier
thread.

Touble is, the SW is specifically mentioned when it hasn't been a wet
winter down in Cornwall.

If anything, the jet is going "up and over" towards Scandinavia at the
moment - would be interesting to look at a jetstream anomaly for this
winter to see how it compares to a climatological norm.

Richard