I note that the Met Office is due to publish its LR forecast for the
remainder of the winter tomorrow and I thought I would get in my '
twopennyworth' first.

This is, I hope, sensible guesswork, based on experience of past winters and
my ' gut
' feeling - which is not infallible. Here goes:-

February will again have temperatures above normal, but it will be more
anticyclonic and drier than January. The anticyclonic spells will probably
have ' High' centres
close to Ireland, and central/ south-east Europe.One or two
brief northerly outbreaks will chiefly affect Scotland, - of course.
Several springlike
days can be expected in the south , probably with temperatures up to 16c,
especially in the second half of the month.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 14:21:01 -0000, "Peter Clarke"
wrote:

I note that the Met Office is due to publish its LR forecast for the
remainder of the winter tomorrow and I thought I would get in my '
twopennyworth' first.

This is, I hope, sensible guesswork, based on experience of past winters and
my ' gut ' feeling - which is not infallible. Here goes:-

February will again have temperatures above normal, but it will be more
anticyclonic and drier than January...

Well I had the following email from the Met Office Aviation briefing
service yesterday. I don't know if it is a summary of the new one or
the last one but anyway, it doesn't make pleasant reading for snow
lovers:

Sharper
Make a difference by sharpening your aviation met. knowledge

Dear Dave

What are the conditions for January and February? Our long-range forecasters
are predicting that it will be milder than average.

“January and February are likely to see a wide variety of weather
from wet and windy to periods of quieter, more settled conditions.
All of which present their own hazards and opportunities for flying.

"Correct planning and understanding of the weather forecasts are essential
to make the most of your flying time.”

- Jon Dutton, Senior Aviation Forecaster

--
Dave

"Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...
I note that the Met Office is due to publish its LR forecast for the
remainder of the winter tomorrow and I thought I would get in my '
twopennyworth' first.

This is, I hope, sensible guesswork, based on experience of past winters
and my ' gut
' feeling - which is not infallible. Here goes:-

February will again have temperatures above normal, but it will be more
anticyclonic and drier than January. The anticyclonic spells will
probably have ' High' centres
close to Ireland, and central/ south-east Europe.One or two
brief northerly outbreaks will chiefly affect Scotland, - of course.
Several springlike
days can be expected in the south , probably with temperatures up to 16c,
especially in the second half of the month.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom
---------------------------
I wouldn't argue with that. Looking at the charts and knowing the way things
are these days no sensible person is going to predict severe cold (Piers,
you can take a comfort break at this point). Predicted cold generally hasn't
materialised while forecast mildness rarely seems to be turned on its head.
We'll see, but I know where my money's going. (Down the drain, at the
moment, actually :-( )

Dave