Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0528, 23rd Jan 2008

The start of the working week will see a gradual cooling of the weather, as
a trough moves in from the west and dissipates over the UK. The heaviest of
any rain will continue to be over northern and western areas. Towards the
end of the working week there are signs of the Azores High ridging
northwards and bringing a brief northerly plunge, but confidence in that is
only moderate.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
SSW'lies cover the UK, with a trough to the west and high pressure to the
SE. Tomorrow a trough moves eastwards, with WSW'lies for all. Friday sees
pressure build over Biscay, leading to further WSW'lies - gale force in the
north. There are yet more WSW'lies on Saturday as the high moves eastwards.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet heading northwards over the
mid-Atlantic, ENE'wards over Iceland and southwards into eastern Europe,
with the UK under a large rridge. At the 500hPa level there's a large upper
high over France and SW'lies aloft for the UK. ECM has a similar upper high
to the SE, as is the case with GEM. NGP and MetO were unavailable at the
time of writing.
At the surface GFS brings SW'lies and WSW'lies, strongest in the north and
west, with high pressure to the SE. ECM has less ridging over the UK, with
WSW'lies instead and high pressure over France. GEM is very similar, with
WSW'lies and again a high over France.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows SW'lies on day 6 as a trough approaches from the west. THe winds
become WSW'lies and westerlies on day 7 as the trough fills.
A trough lies to the immediate west on day 6 with GFS, resulting in SW'lies
for all. On day 7 the trough moves eastwards and dissipates, leaving England
and Wales under light northerlies and with WSW'lies elsewhere.

Looking further afield
By day 8 ECM shows westerlies and NW'lies with a trough to the west. The
trough moves swiftly eastwards as pressure builds to the west on day 9,
leading to NW'lies for all. The winds become westerlies on day 10 as the
ridge moves SE'wards over France and declines.
Another trough deepens to the west on day 8 with GFS, leading to SW'lies for
all. The trough moves eastwards on day 9, introducing a much colder WSW'ly
and WNW'ly flow over the UK. By day 10 a deep low lies to the NE of
Scotland, with strong to gale force NW'lies over Scotland and Northern
Ireland. Elsewhere, winds are westerlies or WNW'lies.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles continue to show a mobile "sine wave" pattern for the next
week, thereafter there's general agreement on a northerly plunge.