On 24 Jan, 11:25, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
Retrogression has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24
hours allowing a cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea
anomalies are negative)

Will,

Where in the eastern half of North Atlantic are the SST's anomaly negative?

I've just looked at:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web...x721_global_an...

And it seems to my untrained eye that the whole of the eastern North
Atlantic has a +ve temperature anomaly. More interestingly, apart from the
tropical Pacific areas and smaller areas here and there, most of the rest of
the world seems to have a +ve SST anomaly.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...t.20080109.gif
also shows north Atlantic very warm, even by the standards of recent
years.

More locally Sevenstones www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62107
still showing an SST of 11C, exceptional for late Jan.

Graham
Penzance

Nick Gardner wrote:

Retrogression has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24
hours allowing a cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea
anomalies are negative)

Will,

Where in the eastern half of North Atlantic are the SST's anomaly
negative?

I've just looked at:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web...lobal_anom.gif

And it seems to my untrained eye that the whole of the eastern North
Atlantic has a +ve temperature anomaly. More interestingly, apart from the
tropical Pacific areas and smaller areas here and there, most of the rest
of the world seems to have a +ve SST anomaly.

There's a patch in the Jan Mayen area but it's not big enough to make much
difference, particularly given the warm anomalies to the south of it, plus
lower than average amounts of ice.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
o.uk...

"
It looks as though the 00Z ECMWF has backed away from a cold plunge.
--
...... and 06Z GFS to an extent. More runs not needed ;-(

Dave

The ensemble data from both EC and the GFS still support the cooling
trend/plunge of sorts around the beginning of February. Might get a frost if
I'm, err, lucky.

In the short period the long TAFs are now showing the risk of particularly
strong gusts due to lee wave activity tomorrow as mentioned by several
already, e.g Newcastle with gusts of around 45KT/52KT expected and a 40%
PROB of 60KT/69MPH gusts

EGNT 241005Z 241818 26015G25KT CAVOK BECMG 0306 23020G30KT
BKN040 BECMG 0912 25025G45KT PROB40 TEMPO 1018 27040G60KT=


Currently a very pleasant PS09 in glorious sunshine.

Jon (tropical east Devon)

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
o.uk...

"
It looks as though the 00Z ECMWF has backed away from a cold plunge.
--
...... and 06Z GFS to an extent. More runs not needed ;-(

Dave

The ensemble data from both EC and the GFS still support the cooling
trend/plunge of sorts around the beginning of February. Might get a frost if
I'm, err, lucky.

In the short period the long TAFs are now showing the risk of particularly
strong gusts due to lee wave activity tomorrow as mentioned by several
already, e.g Newcastle with gusts of around 45KT/52MPH expected and a 40%
PROB of 60KT/69MPH gusts

EGNT 241005Z 241818 26015G25KT CAVOK BECMG 0306 23020G30KT
BKN040 BECMG 0912 25025G45KT PROB40 TEMPO 1018 27040G60KT=


Currently a very pleasant PS09 in glorious sunshine.

Jon (tropical east Devon)

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message
news
Retrogression has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24
hours allowing a cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea
anomalies are negative)

Will,

Where in the eastern half of North Atlantic are the SST's anomaly negative?

I've just looked at:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web...lobal_anom.gif

And it seems to my untrained eye that the whole of the eastern North
Atlantic has a +ve temperature anomaly. More interestingly, apart from the
tropical Pacific areas and smaller areas here and there, most of the rest of
the world seems to have a +ve SST anomaly.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk


Not sure about that source but the analysis I saw yesterday (dated 23rd not the
9th) had a negative anomaly of 0 to 1 degrees between Iceland and Norway (north
of Faeroes).

Latest runs today indicate that the retrogression is still well signalled,
although, of course details oscillate at that range. So I'm pretty sure we are
in for a change to a much colder and more wintry type later next week. Northern
and western areas will see most wintry precip. with some west in the wind. Upper
pattern is right for long wave retrogression.

Will
--

I
18Z GFS is looking seriously wintry for last two days of January. Retrogression
has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24 hours allowing a
cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea anomalies are negative) to
push down across UK behind a cold front next Weds into Thurs with 850 hPa
temperatures -5 to -8C. 12Z ECMWF is also quite marked about retrogression and
cold plunge. As is UKMO as far as I can see. Confidence in this must be
increasing to circa 60% I'd say. That might knock a record mild January on the
head for some people LOL.

Long way off yet Will we are still on here for another record warm
January next 4 or 5 days looking good for it

One of the lads came in today and said he'd heard snow showers were
forecast for this afternoon, I really had to control my laughter!
Offered to give him 10 quid if we had as much as a snowflake I was that
confident, needless to say my money is still in my pocket!

Max 7.2c from 09.00 much warmer between 00.00 and 09.00!

Dry and sunny today with 5.5 hours sunshine.

Weston Coyney weather station (North Staffordshire) 220 metres asl


--
Graham

Not sure about that source but the analysis I saw yesterday (dated 23rd not the
9th) had a negative anomaly of 0 to 1 degrees between Iceland and Norway (north
of Faeroes).


Not just 9th, but16th http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...t.20080116.gif
just as warm as 9th. I like this site as it shows the mean values over
the week (as I understand it). It certainly doesn't give the wild
fluctuations that some sites give.

A quick look the the MetO SST charts shows just how warm the seas
surrounding the UK are, or just look at the buoy reports, some 2-3C
above normal for late Jan. 10C way up north http://magicseaweed.com/Wave-Buoy/64045/

Graham
Penzance