18Z GFS is looking seriously wintry for last two days of January. Retrogression
has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24 hours allowing a
cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea anomalies are negative) to
push down across UK behind a cold front next Weds into Thurs with 850 hPa
temperatures -5 to -8C. 12Z ECMWF is also quite marked about retrogression and
cold plunge. As is UKMO as far as I can see. Confidence in this must be
increasing to circa 60% I'd say. That might knock a record mild January on the
head for some people LOL.

Will.
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

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On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 22:54:23 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:

18Z GFS is looking seriously wintry for last two days of January. Retrogression
has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24 hours allowing a
cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea anomalies are negative) to
push down across UK behind a cold front next Weds into Thurs with 850 hPa
temperatures -5 to -8C. 12Z ECMWF is also quite marked about retrogression and
cold plunge. As is UKMO as far as I can see. Confidence in this must be
increasing to circa 60% I'd say. That might knock a record mild January on the
head for some people LOL.

Thanks for that but oh dear, Piers will be jumping with glee thinking
"I'm gonna get outta jail!" and some tabloids will believe him...

--
Dave

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 22:54:23 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:

18Z GFS is looking seriously wintry for last two days of January.
Retrogression
has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24 hours allowing a
cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea anomalies are negative)
to
push down across UK behind a cold front next Weds into Thurs with 850 hPa
temperatures -5 to -8C. 12Z ECMWF is also quite marked about retrogression
and
cold plunge. As is UKMO as far as I can see. Confidence in this must be
increasing to circa 60% I'd say. That might knock a record mild January on
the
head for some people LOL.

Thanks for that but oh dear, Piers will be jumping with glee thinking
"I'm gonna get outta jail!" and some tabloids will believe him...


Not really it will still end up a mild January but perhaps not record breaking
and certainly nowhere near where Mr Corbyn predicted. Some places in the south
and Midlands this coming Saturday and Sunday could end up quite warm (15C+)
given some sunshine. Northern Scotland looks like staying very cold though with
arctic air remaining very close. Rapid changes have been a feauture of this
month so far.

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 22:54:23 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:

18Z GFS is looking seriously wintry for last two days of January.
Retrogression
has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24 hours allowing
a
cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea anomalies are
negative)
to
push down across UK behind a cold front next Weds into Thurs with 850
hPa
temperatures -5 to -8C. 12Z ECMWF is also quite marked about
retrogression
and
cold plunge. As is UKMO as far as I can see. Confidence in this must be
increasing to circa 60% I'd say. That might knock a record mild January
on
the
head for some people LOL.

Thanks for that but oh dear, Piers will be jumping with glee thinking
"I'm gonna get outta jail!" and some tabloids will believe him...


Not really it will still end up a mild January but perhaps not record
breaking
and certainly nowhere near where Mr Corbyn predicted. Some places in the
south
and Midlands this coming Saturday and Sunday could end up quite warm
(15C+)
given some sunshine. Northern Scotland looks like staying very cold though
with
arctic air remaining very close. Rapid changes have been a feauture of
this
month so far.

Will
-------------------------
Rapid changes have been a feauture of this month so far.

I couldn't really say that for here Will. In fact almost every day has been
the same. Mainly cloudy, bits of rain, fairly mild. Something brisker will
be a pleasant change.

Dave

--

In article ,
Will Hand writes:
18Z GFS is looking seriously wintry for last two days of January.

Looking at the 06Z run, that seems to have been pushed back to the first
two days of February.

Retrogression
has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24 hours allowing a
cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea anomalies are negative) to
push down across UK behind a cold front next Weds into Thurs with 850 hPa
temperatures -5 to -8C. 12Z ECMWF is also quite marked about retrogression and
cold plunge. As is UKMO as far as I can see. Confidence in this must be
increasing to circa 60% I'd say. That might knock a record mild January on the
head for some people LOL.

It looks as though the 00Z ECMWF has backed away from a cold plunge.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

"
It looks as though the 00Z ECMWF has backed away from a cold plunge.
--
....... and 06Z GFS to an extent. More runs not needed ;-(

Dave

On 24 Jan, 10:42, John Hall wrote:

It looks as though the 00Z ECMWF has backed away from a cold plunge.

Extraordinary looking low pressure in the T+240:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Richard

Retrogression has been a consistent theme now in the models for past 24
hours allowing a cyclonic very cold northerly (originating where sea
anomalies are negative)

Will,

Where in the eastern half of North Atlantic are the SST's anomaly negative?

I've just looked at:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web...lobal_anom.gif

And it seems to my untrained eye that the whole of the eastern North
Atlantic has a +ve temperature anomaly. More interestingly, apart from the
tropical Pacific areas and smaller areas here and there, most of the rest of
the world seems to have a +ve SST anomaly.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Ah no Richard,look at todays 0600 chart ,totally different,perhaps we could
get Piers to publish these charts ...! ?

RonB

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 24 Jan, 10:42, John Hall wrote:

It looks as though the 00Z ECMWF has backed away from a cold plunge.

Extraordinary looking low pressure in the T+240:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Richard

*Rapid changes have been a feauture of this month so far.

I couldn't really say that for here Will. In fact almost every day has been
the same. Mainly cloudy, bits of rain, fairly mild. Something brisker will
be a pleasant change.

Dave



Same here Dave, consistently mild. Only 4 days have failed to reach
10C, the last one being 11th. Todays sunshine is wonderful - still in
double figures.

Graham
Penzance