It seems that mild weather predictions are straightforward and always come
off whereas cold snaps are fraught with difficulty and rarely come off. But
I wonder if this is a mis-perception due to where the norm lies. In other
words to get what would be considered (by me anyway) to be cold and the
possibility of snow the temperature would roughly and likely be in the 0-3C
max range. Weather likely not to cause this would have temperatures in the
range 4-13C at this time of year. So small changes in synoptics will take us
out of the cold scenario whereas small or even large synoptic changes in the
same time scale will still lead to temperatures in the "mild" range,
possibly similar weather, and largely go unnoticed or not commented on.
Obvious to most on here but something to bear in mind when there is feeling
of things "being against us" syndrome for cold weather fans. ;-(
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
k...
It seems that mild weather predictions are straightforward and always come
off whereas cold snaps are fraught with difficulty and rarely come off.
But I wonder if this is a mis-perception due to where the norm lies. In
other words to get what would be considered (by me anyway) to be cold and
the possibility of snow the temperature would roughly and likely be in the
0-3C max range. Weather likely not to cause this would have temperatures
in the range 4-13C at this time of year. So small changes in synoptics
will take us out of the cold scenario whereas small or even large synoptic
changes in the same time scale will still lead to temperatures in the
"mild" range, possibly similar weather, and largely go unnoticed or not
commented on.
Obvious to most on here but something to bear in mind when there is
feeling of things "being against us" syndrome for cold weather fans. ;-(

Seems reasonable to me.
If there is a forecast of 9C for 5 days hence and it turns out to be 11C
then that's just mild and nobody will even notice that the forecast was
'wrong'. However a 2C difference at the critical snow forming
temperatures makes a massive difference, cue much wailing and gnashing
of teeth on this newsgroup
But really, that forecast is no worse in absolute terms than the one that
predicted 9C but the outcome was 11C. It's just the consequences of
the same error are so much greater.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl