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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0534, 30th Jan 2008 The end of the weekend will see a messy transition back to milder weather, with a front moving in from the west. Initially it'll fall as rain but as it meets the cold air further east it's likely to turn to snow, with the potential for some heavy falls in places. It's likely that later on in the day it'll turn back to rain, but not before a covering of snow in many places. Into next week milder air returns, with a standard NW/SE split likely, most of the rain in the north and west. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png A trough covers SE England, with westerlis and WNW'lies following behind. Tomorrow sees a deep low to the north with strong to gale force SW'lies over the UK. A trough moves SE'wards and by Friday the eholw of the UK lies under a much colder westerly or WNW'ly flow, with gales or severe gales and snow likely for much of Scotland. By Saturday the low fills and moves ENE'wards, leaving the UK under notably cold NW'lies. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a zonal flow across the North Atlantic, with the the core of the jet below 50N. There's a trough over the UK, with the jet heading northwards over eastern parts of the UK. At the 500hPa level there's an upper low to the NW and a trough over Ireland, with upper southerlies over much of the UK. MetO shows a similar setup, with upper southerlies and SW'lies for the UK, as is the case with ECM. GEM brings upper SSW'lies with a low to the WNW. At the surface GFS brings a trough over the UK, with SSE'lies or SE'lies for Scotland and eastern England and SW'lies elsewhere. MetO has the trough over northern Scotland instead, with SW'lies for most. ECM brings strong southerlies for all, with a trough over Northern Ireland, while GEM has a low to the north and SW'lies for all. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows strong SSW'lies for all, with a low to the WNW on day 6. The low moves northwards and fills on day 7, with SW'lies for all. A deep low lies to the west on day 6 with GFS, leading to strong southerlies. The low moves NNE'wards on day 7, leaving SW'lies for the UK. Looking further afield A low lies to the west on day 8 with ECM, with southerlies over the UK. The winds become SSW'lies and SW'lies on day 9 as a weak ridge moves NE'wards, followed by further SW'lies on day 10. GFS shows a secondary low crossing the UK on day 8, followed by a weak ridge and westerlies on day 9. By day 10 winds are SSW'lies with high pressure to the ESE. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The ensembles still show three cold days followed by a return to much milder conditions. |
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