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Old January 31st 08, 05:26 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (31/01/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0534, 31st Jan 2008

Next week will start on an unsettled note, with all areas seeing rain due to
nearby low pressure. Thereafter more of a NW/SE split develops as high
pressure builds to the SE, with northern and western areas seeing the bulk
of any rain and southern areas staying drier.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Low pressure lies to the NNW, bringing strong to gale force SW'lies over the
UK. A trough will move SE'wards, bringing colder westerlies and WNW'lies by
this time tomorrow. NW'lies cover the UK on Saturday as low pressure fills
to the ENE. On Sunday a trough approaches from the west, bringing
southerlies across the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a moderately strong zonal flow across the North
Atlantic, with the jet heading NE'wards over England and Wales. At the
500hPa level there's a deep upper low to the NE and SW'lies aloft for the
UK. The other runs (MetO, ECM, NGP and GEM) all show a very similar picture,
with an upper low to the NW and upper SW'lies as the result over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings a secondary low to the west of Scotland, with a
trough over the Scottish border. To the north winds are SE'lies, with strong
to gale SSW'lies elsewhere. MetO has a trough over Northern Ireland, with
light winds there. As with GFS, Scotland lies under SE'lies with SSW'lies
elsewhere. ECM brings southerlies and SSW'lies over the UK with low pressure
further to the west. GEM has complex low pressure to the north and WNW,
leading to SW'lies and SSW'lies over the UK. NGP brings SW'lies for all with
a single low to the NW.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows SW'lies for all on day 6 with low pressure to the WNW. A weak
ridge moves eastwards on day 7, leading to SSW'lies for all.
SW'lies cover the UK on day 6 with the GFS, due to a deep low to the north.
A secondary low moves over the Western Isles on day 7, bringing southerlies
for most areas.

Looking further afield
Westerlies cover the UK on day 8 with ECM, as low pressure fills to the NE.
High pressure builds atop the UK on day 9 and by day 10 it builds further
over England and Wales, with southerlies and SSW'lies elsewhere.
GFS shows WSW'lies on day 8 as a weak trough crosses southern areas of the
UK, followed by strong SW'lies on day 9 with low pressure over Iceland. A
weak trough moves eastwards on day 10, with WSW'lies for all.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
After the weekend the ensembles show a typical "sine wave" zonal pattern.



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