"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
...
Not knowing what to expect after seeing or hearing a weather forecast is
something I'm used to nowadays. Anyway, 7C sounds about right for
a "bitterly cold" day these days - i.e. temperatures about normal. The
long
track of northerly winds over warmer than usual water brings surface
temperatures up to normal by the time the air gets here.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]

Which I why I cannot understand how weather warnings for the SW have
consistently given a 60% chance of disruption on Scilly due to snow,
when the SST around the islands, which barely poke above sea level is
still close to 11C, and there own forecasts have shown minima in the
islands never lower than 6C.

I would give the chance of disruption on Scilly (due to snow) as
pretty close to 0. Rough sea commonly causes disruption to services
there, but that never qualifies for a warning.

Graham
Penzance

It is a fundamental problem with the warning system in that the resolution
is too coarse. There could well be a significant chance of disruption over
the moors which then is applied to the whole of the SW.

Alan
St Albans

Which I why I cannot understand how weather warnings for the SW have
consistently given a 60% chance of disruption on Scilly due to snow,
when the SST around the islands, which barely poke above sea level is
still close to 11C, and there own forecasts have shown minima in the
islands never lower than 6C.

It is a fundamental problem with the warning system in that the resolution
is too coarse. There could well be a significant chance of disruption over
the moors which then is applied to the whole of the SW.

Alan
St Albans- Hide quoted text -


Agreed, but why specifically include Scilly in the warnings?, it's not
part of Cornwall after all. It was quite a talking point here - with
people expecting not just snow on the Islands, bit a lot of it (as 60%
chance of disruption implies).

Minimum of 6.3C in Penzance last night, despite fairly clear skies at
times. Currently 7.4C, force 3-4 NW wind & sunny spells. I notice
there's plently of showers over the sea.

Graham
Penzance

Graham Easterling wrote:

Agreed, but why specifically include Scilly in the warnings?, it's not
part of Cornwall after all. It was quite a talking point here - with
people expecting not just snow on the Islands, bit a lot of it (as 60%
chance of disruption implies).

I thought I had posted a reply, but I think I may have emailed it somewhere
instead.

I think the problem is that the MO have chosen a sub-region of SW England
called "Cornwall & Isles of Scilly", so any warning for any part of that
sub-region will have that title. I don't believe the intention was to
specifically include Scilly in the snow warning. This just my guess; how
anyone is supposed to know for sure, I don't know.

I believe an overhaul of the warning output is in progress?
--
Steve Loft
Sanday, Orkney. 5m ASL. http://sanday.org.uk/weather
Free weather station softwa http://sandaysoft.com/

Steve Loft wrote:

Graham Easterling wrote:

Agreed, but why specifically include Scilly in the warnings?, it's
not part of Cornwall after all. It was quite a talking point here -
with people expecting not just snow on the Islands, bit a lot of it
(as 60% chance of disruption implies).

I thought I had posted a reply, but I think I may have emailed it
somewhere instead.

I think the problem is that the MO have chosen a sub-region of SW
England called "Cornwall & Isles of Scilly", so any warning for any
part of that sub-region will have that title. I don't believe the
intention was to specifically include Scilly in the snow warning.
This just my guess; how anyone is supposed to know for sure, I don't
know.

I believe an overhaul of the warning output is in progress?

Well overdue IMHO :-( This morning's batch of so-called Early Warnings
are valid from the time of issue. That makes no sense to me.

Norman
--
Norman Lynagh
Chalfont St Giles, Buckinghamshire
85m a.s.l.
(remove "thisbit" twice to e-mail)

On Fri, 1 Feb 2008 01:34:22 -0800 (PST), Graham Easterling
wrote:

Agreed, but why specifically include Scilly in the warnings?, it's not
part of Cornwall after all. It was quite a talking point here - with
people expecting not just snow on the Islands, bit a lot of it (as 60%
chance of disruption implies).

Our main 'warning' area is Strathclyde which is subdivided when there
are area variations into 'counties'. We are in Argyll and Bute but
sufficiently close to E Dunbartonshire to make it worth looking at that
for a forecast. Last night we were due to have 'severe' winds from 21:00
onwards. Again, it didn't happen.

Why bother to forecast at the county level at all when it would be quite
adequate to talk about 'some places' in W.Scotland?

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather