Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
Issued 0518, 2nd Feb 2008

The end of the working week will see a NW/SE split, with high pressure
bringing more in the way of settled conditions for southern and eastern
Britain. Further north and west there'll be fronts bringing rain as low
pressure passes close by. Temperatures will generally be on the mild side.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A trough covers the North Sea, with WNW'lies and westerlies over the UK.
Tomorrow southerlies and SSW'lies affect all areas, with a deep low to the
NW. A trough moves eastwards on Monday, bringing WSW'lies for most, followed
by southerlies and SSW'lies on Tuesday as a weak ridge crosses the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a ridge over the UK, with a marked trough to the
west. At the 500hPa level there's a strong SW'ly flow, with a ridge to the
SE. ECM has a westerly gradient aloft with a weak ridge over the UK. NGP
shows SW'lies aloft with a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. GEM
has upper westerlies with a flat gradient aloft.
At the surface GFS brings a low to the west with SSW'lies for most. ECM has
a weak ridge with WSW'lies for the UK, while NGP brings SW'lies due to a
trough to the west. WSW'lies cover the UK with GEM, with a weak ridge to the
west.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows SW'lies for all on day 6 as low pressure moves NE'wards to the NW
of the UK. A trough approaches from the west on day 7, with further SW'lies.
A weak ridge covers the UK on day 6 with GFS, leading to WNW'lies for most.
The ridge builds and moves eastwards on day 7, bringing SW'lies for all.

Looking further afield
A secondary low lies to the north on day 8 with ECM, leading to SW'lies for
all. The winds become lighter WSW'lies on day 9 as pressure builds to the
south, followed by westerlies on day 10 as the high retrogresses.
On day 8 GFS shows pressure building to the west, leaving Scotland under
WSW'lies and the rest of the UK under a col. On day 9 the high to the west
builds to 1050hPa, over Ireland, leading to NW'lies and WNW'lies for the UK.
By day 10 the high builds further in situ, with NW'lies and WNW'lies
persisting.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
Yesterday's 18z ensembles continue to show a mobile and mild "sine wave"
pattern.