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Old February 4th 08, 05:33 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (4/2/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0529, 4th Feb 2008

The weekend will see high pressure close to southern and eastern regions of
the UK, although there are considerable differences regarding its location.
Saturday is likely to be a mild day with wind and rain in the north and
west, but by Sunday only the far north and NW will see rain as pressure
builds elsewhere. Temperatures will generally be mild by day but there could
be patchy frost at night.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Low pressure lies to the NW, with a trough over eastern parts of the UK.
Winds are generally SW'lies, followed by southerlies tomorrow as another low
approaches from the west. The low moves NE'wards, leaving a trough over the
east on Wednesday. Winds are SW'lies in the east and WNW'lies in the west.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet heading NE'wards to the west of the
UK, with a marked ridge aloft. At the 500hPa level there's a ridge to the
east, with upper SSW'lies. MetO has upper SSW'lies too, while ECM has upper
westerlies and a weak ridge over the UK. NGP brings upper southerlies, while
GEM is closer to ECM with a ridge over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings southerlies for all, with a trough to the west.
MetO is very similar and also shows southerlies, while ECM brings SW'lies
and a weak ridge over the North Sea. NGP has southerlies, again with a
trough to the west, while GEM brings SW'lies and again a ridge over the
North Sea.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows SW'lies on day 6 with high pressure to the south. On day 7 a high
moves in from the west, bringing WSW'lies to Scotland and light winds
elsewhere.
Southerlies and SW'lies cover the UK on day 6 with GFS, with low pressure to
the west. The low fills and drifts northwards on day 7, leading to
southerlies and SE'lies for the UK.

Looking further afield
High pressure builds over the UK on day 8 with ECM, leading to light winds
for all areas except NW Scotland, which lies under SW'lies. The high moves
slowly eastwards on day 9, with a ridge for England and Wales. Elsewhere,
winds are southerlies or SSW'lies. A trough moves in from the west on day
10, with SW'lies for all.
On day 8 GFS shows a trough crossing the UK, with SW'lies and WSW'lies as a
result. A ridge builds from the west on day 9, leading to SW'lies for
Scotland and Northern Ireland with northerlies elsewhere. On day 10 SW'lies
persist in the north, with a ridge bringing light winds for England and
Wales.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show a few days of a zonal "sine wave" pattern, followed by a
mild spell.



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