In this sort of event the meteocentre website has become a firm favourite:

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar...lang=fr&run=12
&hour=072&range=glb

This sort of plot shows really well the comparison between some of the
model runs - and how the models are still agreeing pretty well on a rapid
cyclogenesis event with all the models displayed on exactly the same
footing on the same page (although the EC plot is bereft of the thickness
lines).

GEM 943mb, EC 945mb, UKMET 946mb, GFS 954mb. Interested to see the GFS
model is lowest of the 4 - my own impression is that it tends to overdeepen
lows. Got no particular statistical evidence on this, however !

Interesting to see another low following on after which might give a bit of
a sting Tuesday/Wednesday.

Richard

Mike Tullett wrote in
:

A very useful site, Rich, and bookmarked this time. I see 951mb,
North Channel, on the latest for the GFS model though.

Is that the 18z run? I think this site only uses the 00/12z runs?

Cheers
Rich

On Fri, 07 Mar 2008 21:43:52 GMT, Richard Dixon wrote in
. 99

In this sort of event the meteocentre website has become a firm favourite:

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar...lang=fr&run=12
&hour=072&range=glb

This sort of plot shows really well the comparison between some of the
model runs - and how the models are still agreeing pretty well on a rapid
cyclogenesis event with all the models displayed on exactly the same
footing on the same page (although the EC plot is bereft of the thickness
lines).

GEM 943mb, EC 945mb, UKMET 946mb, GFS 954mb. Interested to see the GFS
model is lowest of the 4 - my own impression is that it tends to overdeepen
lows. Got no particular statistical evidence on this, however !

Interesting to see another low following on after which might give a bit of
a sting Tuesday/Wednesday.

A very useful site, Rich, and bookmarked this time. I see 951mb, North
Channel, on the latest for the GFS model though.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 07/03/2008 22:01:00 GMT

On Fri, 07 Mar 2008 22:00:03 GMT, Richard Dixon wrote in
. 99

A very useful site, Rich, and bookmarked this time. I see 951mb,
North Channel, on the latest for the GFS model though.

Is that the 18z run? I think this site only uses the 00/12z runs?

It was indeed the 12Z run. The 18Z run shows about 950mb on this chart-
slap bang over me:-) There haven't been many times it's been below 950
here since I arrived, back in 1967.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.html

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 07/03/2008 22:10:23 GMT

On 7 Mar, 22:10, Mike Tullett wrote:
There haven't been many times it's been below 950
here since I arrived, back in 1967.

No indeed, Mike - probably the lowest for the whole northern part of
the island since 1967 has been 943.2 mbar at Belmullet on 17 Jan 1995,
although this event would not have been below 950 in Coleraine. But at
the very tail end of 1966 this would certainly have been the case: I
suspect Monday's storm, on what looks to be a similar track, will not
surpass these values -

1 December 1966
A series of fast-moving and rapidly-deepening depressions crossed
northern Britain from the west during late November 1966. One
depression formed as an open wave 1002 mbar at 56„a N, 35„a W at noon on
30 November then deepened rapidly while moving quickly eastwards to be
located near 57„a N, 18„a W just 12 hours later, with central pressure
955 mbar. It subsequently moved more slowly east-south-eastwards
across northern Ireland and southern Scotland into the central North
Sea by 0600 GMT 2 December. The lowest barometric pressures reported
were 942.6 mbar at Carrigans (near Derry/Londonderry) and 943.9 mbar
at Belfast/Aldergrove Airport (both at 1500 GMT on 1 December) and
944.3 mbar at the Mull of Galloway at 1800 GMT. The barometric
pressure on this occasion remains the lowest on post-war record for
Northern Ireland, southern Scotland south of the Great Glen and for
all of northern England north of a line Manchester to Hull.

(From my article in Weather Jan 2007, The lowest of the Lows ...
Extremes of barometric pressure in the British Isles, Part 1)

--
Stephen Burt
Stratfield Mortimer, Berkshire