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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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In this sort of event the meteocentre website has become a firm favourite:
http://meteocentre.com/models/compar...lang=fr&run=12 &hour=072&range=glb This sort of plot shows really well the comparison between some of the model runs - and how the models are still agreeing pretty well on a rapid cyclogenesis event with all the models displayed on exactly the same footing on the same page (although the EC plot is bereft of the thickness lines). GEM 943mb, EC 945mb, UKMET 946mb, GFS 954mb. Interested to see the GFS model is lowest of the 4 - my own impression is that it tends to overdeepen lows. Got no particular statistical evidence on this, however ! Interesting to see another low following on after which might give a bit of a sting Tuesday/Wednesday. Richard |
#2
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Mike Tullett wrote in
: A very useful site, Rich, and bookmarked this time. I see 951mb, North Channel, on the latest for the GFS model though. Is that the 18z run? I think this site only uses the 00/12z runs? Cheers Rich |
#3
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On Fri, 07 Mar 2008 21:43:52 GMT, Richard Dixon wrote in
. 99 In this sort of event the meteocentre website has become a firm favourite: http://meteocentre.com/models/compar...lang=fr&run=12 &hour=072&range=glb This sort of plot shows really well the comparison between some of the model runs - and how the models are still agreeing pretty well on a rapid cyclogenesis event with all the models displayed on exactly the same footing on the same page (although the EC plot is bereft of the thickness lines). GEM 943mb, EC 945mb, UKMET 946mb, GFS 954mb. Interested to see the GFS model is lowest of the 4 - my own impression is that it tends to overdeepen lows. Got no particular statistical evidence on this, however ! Interesting to see another low following on after which might give a bit of a sting Tuesday/Wednesday. A very useful site, Rich, and bookmarked this time. I see 951mb, North Channel, on the latest for the GFS model though. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 07/03/2008 22:01:00 GMT |
#4
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On Fri, 07 Mar 2008 22:00:03 GMT, Richard Dixon wrote in
. 99 A very useful site, Rich, and bookmarked this time. I see 951mb, North Channel, on the latest for the GFS model though. Is that the 18z run? I think this site only uses the 00/12z runs? It was indeed the 12Z run. The 18Z run shows about 950mb on this chart- slap bang over me:-) There haven't been many times it's been below 950 here since I arrived, back in 1967. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.html -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 07/03/2008 22:10:23 GMT |
#5
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On 7 Mar, 22:10, Mike Tullett wrote:
There haven't been many times it's been below 950 here since I arrived, back in 1967. No indeed, Mike - probably the lowest for the whole northern part of the island since 1967 has been 943.2 mbar at Belmullet on 17 Jan 1995, although this event would not have been below 950 in Coleraine. But at the very tail end of 1966 this would certainly have been the case: I suspect Monday's storm, on what looks to be a similar track, will not surpass these values - 1 December 1966 A series of fast-moving and rapidly-deepening depressions crossed northern Britain from the west during late November 1966. One depression formed as an open wave 1002 mbar at 56„a N, 35„a W at noon on 30 November then deepened rapidly while moving quickly eastwards to be located near 57„a N, 18„a W just 12 hours later, with central pressure 955 mbar. It subsequently moved more slowly east-south-eastwards across northern Ireland and southern Scotland into the central North Sea by 0600 GMT 2 December. The lowest barometric pressures reported were 942.6 mbar at Carrigans (near Derry/Londonderry) and 943.9 mbar at Belfast/Aldergrove Airport (both at 1500 GMT on 1 December) and 944.3 mbar at the Mull of Galloway at 1800 GMT. The barometric pressure on this occasion remains the lowest on post-war record for Northern Ireland, southern Scotland south of the Great Glen and for all of northern England north of a line Manchester to Hull. (From my article in Weather Jan 2007, The lowest of the Lows ... Extremes of barometric pressure in the British Isles, Part 1) -- Stephen Burt Stratfield Mortimer, Berkshire |
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