the thread around 19th February ("Global Warming? It's the coldest
winter in decades"), which was sparked by an article in the Daily
Express.

I pointed out at the time that we couldn't possibly know what the
winter temperatures averaged out across the globe could be, but we now
have the data, so I'll update here for information:

Based on *station* (land) data, the figures are (wrt 1951-1980
climatology):-
December + 0.61degC
January + 0.31degC
February + 0.31degC
Average for the 'climatological' winter = +0.41degC.
By this series, the winter just gone was the coldest since 2000
(+0.37degC)

Comparing with the 20 yr period 1980-1999, the winter of '07/'08 was
_as warm or warmer_ than 15 of those 20 years. And of course, it was
significantly warmer than the earlier years (bar one: 1882) in the
rest of the series (began 1880).

[Source:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt]

Using the 'wider' land + ocean measure, then the overall anomaly for
the winter just gone was +0.26degC, certainly much lower than recent
winters, but only the coldest since 1994. Again, the winter '07/'08
was warmer than the overwhelming majority of winters prior to 1980.

[Source:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...B.Ts+dSST.txt]

It is hardly surprising that the winter anomaly this time around is
lower (though note still +ve) than for a few years past, as at the
time, large areas of the equatorial Pacific had waters with a SST well
below average: using the NOAA weekly updated data, there was core of
water with an anomaly of -2degC or greater (large patches at -2.5degC
or colder), and the envelope of below-average temperature water
extending 20deg lat. either side of the Equator (around the end of the
season).

Of interest though, on the latest data (5th March), this
colder-than-normal area is both shrinking and warming out; indeed,
there are signs of marked warming occurring off the coast of Peru,
extending westwards.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/...ni-weekly.html

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk