Note: Now that everyone's doing everything an hour earlier, I'll have less
time on Sundays to write this analysis. As such, until everyone goes back to
normal there'll be a shorter analysis on Sundays.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0445z, 31st March 2008.

There are signs of colder weather on the way. ECM and GFS both show a ridge
over the UK towards the end of the working week and both show the ridge
moving westwards, opening the gates for a northerly blast. GFS shows the
blast to be especially potent for early April, although its ensembles show a
50/50 split between a cold spell and much milder conditions persisting.

ECMWF: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...mwf/ecmwf.html
High pressure is centres over the Isles of Scilly, bringing NW'lies over
much of the UK. On day 6 the high declines and low pressure deepens to the
NW, resulting in WSW'lies. On day 7 the low deepens over the North Sea,
leading to strong NW'lies and WNW'lies.

MetO: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ukmo/pslv.html
MetO shows a high in the same place as ECM and thus also has NW'lies for
most. The high moves eastwards on day 6, resulting in WSW'lies for all.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
High pressure covers the UK, bringing light winds for all. On day 6 the high
moves westwards, allowing NW'lies to cover the UK. On day 7 the high builds
to the north, resulting in cold northerlies over the UK.

GEM: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../gem/pslv.html
The Canadian run brings a ridge over the UK, with a mixture of westerlies
and WSW'lies as a result.

JMA: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif
JMA brings a high over the Isles of Scilly as per ECM and MetO. A mixture of
westerlies and SW'lies covers the UK, with a trough over Scotland.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Note: Now that everyone's doing everything an hour earlier, I'll have less
time on Sundays to write this analysis. As such, until everyone goes back
to
normal there'll be a shorter analysis on Sundays.


0925

Keep up the good work Darren. I admire your energy, commitment and
enthusiasm.

Will (from a now sunny, but not for long, Haytor)
--

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Note: Now that everyone's doing everything an hour earlier, I'll have less
time on Sundays to write this analysis. As such, until everyone goes back
to normal there'll be a shorter analysis on Sundays.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0445z, 31st March 2008.

There are signs of colder weather on the way. ECM and GFS both show a
ridge over the UK towards the end of the working week and both show the
ridge moving westwards, opening the gates for a northerly blast. GFS shows
the blast to be especially potent for early April, although its ensembles
show a 50/50 split between a cold spell and much milder conditions
persisting.
---------------------
I noticed yesterday that the GFS ensembles were incredibly split from about
April 7th , 50% going for +10C 850hPa and the other 50% for about -10C 850
hPa with not much in between!
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
.uk...

I noticed yesterday that the GFS ensembles were incredibly split from
about April 7th , 50% going for +10C 850hPa and the other 50% for
about -10C 850 hPa with not much in between!
It looks like they've gone back to the "cold" outlook, as they were the
other day:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

It never ceases to amaze me how the models can pick up on a trend (cold),
wobble around all over the place (yesterday, one GEFS run even had 80% mild
and 20% cold) and then go back to where they started (cold again).

It'd drive anyone to distraction if they took those ensembles too seriously!