I've just looked at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

The forecast currently shows for Penzance:-
13:00 9C
16:00 9C
Now, I if there was persistent sea fog all day the AND the breeze was
onshore temperature could be held down to 10-11C (the sea
temperature). Any brief breaks would soon push it to 12 or 13.

BUT the wind is NNW - offshore, so low cloud at times certainly but no
sea fog. In fact the cloud's already breaking as it descends into the
Bay

I think this forecast is down to:-
1. Totally ignoring aspect (I've mentioned this before)
2. Total lack of data from the south Cornwall coast, and over
reliance of the nearby foggy north coast & hill top locations of
Camborne & St. Mawgan & Culdrose.
3. The fine tuning (mentioned by Will) being done by a mentally
deficient monkey thoroughly p****d off by having to write Shakespeare.

Graham
Penzance

Graham Easterling wrote:
I've just looked at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

The forecast currently shows for Penzance:-
13:00 9C
16:00 9C
Now, I if there was persistent sea fog all day the AND the breeze was
onshore temperature could be held down to 10-11C (the sea
temperature). Any brief breaks would soon push it to 12 or 13.

BUT the wind is NNW - offshore, so low cloud at times certainly but no
sea fog. In fact the cloud's already breaking as it descends into the
Bay

I think this forecast is down to:-
1. Totally ignoring aspect (I've mentioned this before)
2. Total lack of data from the south Cornwall coast, and over
reliance of the nearby foggy north coast & hill top locations of
Camborne & St. Mawgan & Culdrose.
3. The fine tuning (mentioned by Will) being done by a mentally
deficient monkey thoroughly p****d off by having to write Shakespeare.

Graham
Penzance

or, 4. simply the result of using nearby sea surface temperatures (i.e. air temps
over the sea) and a bad model-gridpoint to forecast-location interpolation scheme?

Roger

Hi Graham, what was your actual max. today?
Mine was +14.9C high up here in the Devon hills!
Sunny morning, but clouded up a bit this afternoon, another sea breeze for a
couple of hours.

Come to Dartmoor and enjoy the sunshine, LOL.

Mind you come Sunday it will be a different kettle of fish with the punters
all wrapped up braving the windchill and snow!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
...
I've just looked at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

The forecast currently shows for Penzance:-
13:00 9C
16:00 9C
Now, I if there was persistent sea fog all day the AND the breeze was
onshore temperature could be held down to 10-11C (the sea
temperature). Any brief breaks would soon push it to 12 or 13.

BUT the wind is NNW - offshore, so low cloud at times certainly but no
sea fog. In fact the cloud's already breaking as it descends into the
Bay

I think this forecast is down to:-
1. Totally ignoring aspect (I've mentioned this before)
2. Total lack of data from the south Cornwall coast, and over
reliance of the nearby foggy north coast & hill top locations of
Camborne & St. Mawgan & Culdrose.
3. The fine tuning (mentioned by Will) being done by a mentally
deficient monkey thoroughly p****d off by having to write Shakespeare.

Graham
Penzance

On 4 Apr, 13:42, Roger Brugge wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:
I've just looked atwww.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/penzance_forecast_weather.html

The forecast currently shows for Penzance:-
13:00 9C
16:00 9C
Now, I if there was persistent sea fog all day the AND the breeze was
onshore temperature could be held down to 10-11C (the sea
temperature). Any brief breaks would soon push it to 12 or 13.

BUT the wind is NNW - offshore, so low cloud at times certainly but no
sea fog. In fact the cloud's already breaking as it descends into the
Bay

I think this forecast is down to:-
1. *Totally ignoring aspect (I've mentioned this before)
2. *Total lack of data from the south Cornwall coast, and over
reliance of the nearby foggy north coast & hill top locations of
Camborne & St. Mawgan & Culdrose.
3. *The fine tuning (mentioned by Will) being done by a mentally
deficient monkey thoroughly p****d off by having to write Shakespeare.

Graham
Penzance

or, 4. simply the result of using nearby sea surface temperatures (i.e. air temps
over the sea) and a bad model-gridpoint to forecast-location interpolation scheme?

Roger- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Roger,

It's funny you should say that, a couple of years ago I discovered
that they were using a grid point some way out to sea for the 5 day
CEEFAX forecasts, so the forecast maximum was always very close to the
SST. They also advised me against using the forecasts (honest!) and
also that they weren't responsible for how the BBC used them.

The system must have changed because the figures are more variable
now, but seem to take no account of aspect. So much so that the
forecast temperatures on the north coast this morning which actually
higher than on the south coast. Yesterday the temperatures forecasts
were virtually identical on both coasts, despite it reaching 16-17C on
the south, and around 11C on the north.

Graham
Penzance

On 4 Apr, 16:00, "Will Hand" wrote:
Hi Graham, what was your actual max. today?

It stayed cloudy all day, so the temp sat around 12C or so. (Max 12.9
during a glimpse of sunshine).

I think 11C was forecast for yesterday, it reached 16.8C.

There have been a few occasions when the forecast maximum has been
above the actual minimum.

I think there is a real problem here, as the area depends on tourism.
If, like yesterday, the forecast is for 11C (I think it was upped to
12C at some point) people don't expect the weather to be like
www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/SunnyDay.html

Still, must stop being grumpy now.

Graham