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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Friday.
Issued 0456z, 7th April 2008 The weekend looks unsettled and cool, with low pressure close by and all areas likely to see rain (with snow over the northern hills). The unsettled theme persists into the following week. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png NW'lies and NNW'lies coverthe UK, with lows over the North Sea and over Belgium. Tomorrow a col covers the UK, with light winds for all. On Wednesday low pressure lies to the ENE, with NW'lies over Scotland and Northern Ireland and a col elsewhere. By Thursday WSW'lies cover the UK with lows to the NW and NNE. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a weak jet over the North Atlantic, with a marked shortwave pattern over the UK. Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under a trough and at the 500hPa level there's an upper low over Scotland. MetO has an upper low over Ireland and a trough over the UK, while ECM is very similar indeed, also with an upper low over Ireland. GEM brings an upper low over SW Ireland and southerlies aloft over the UK. At the surface GFS brings low pressure to the ENE with SW'lies for most as a result. MetO has a slack low over Ireland with light winds across the UK, while ECM has a low over Ireland and a mixture of southerlies and SE'lies for the UK. GEM brings SE'lies with low pressure again over Ireland. Evolution to T+168 ECM has low pressure persisting over Ireland on day 6, with a trough over the UK. Winds are SW'lies for England and Wales, with easterlies elsewhere. The low moves eastwards on day 7, with NNE'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are SW'lies. Day 6 with GFS brings WSW'lies for all, with low pressure to the north. Day 7 sees strong southerlies as low pressure deepens to the west. Looking further afield Day 8 with ECM shows NW'lies and westerlies as low pressure moves over the North Sea. NNW'lies affect the UK on day 9 as the low fills and by day 10 NW'lies cover the UK, with high pressure to the west. SSE'lies cover the UK on day 8 with GFS, due to low pressure to the west. A secondary low moves eastwards on day 9, bringing SSE'lies for most, followed by SSW'lies on day 10 as the low fills. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres) The ensembles show a gradual warming trend over the coming week, with temperatures slowly returning to near average by the weekend. |
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