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Old April 15th 08, 05:43 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (15/04/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Saturday.
Issued 0441z, 15th April 2008

The end of the weekend and start of next week will see low pressure to the
south or SE, with cool (and showery) NE'lies across the UK. As the week goes
on it's likely high pressure will move in from the west, but the exact
timing is uncertain.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
NW'lies and WNW'lies cover the UK, with high pressure to the south. Tomorrow
pressure builds to the north, with light easterlies and SE'lies over the UK.
Easterlies pick up on Thursday as pressure remains high to the north and on
Friday the winds become ENE'lies as low pressure deepens explosively NW of
Iberia.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a large trough over western Europe, with a strong
jet heading NE'wards over southern Europe and the Mediterranean. At the
500hPa level there's an upper ENE'ly flow, with a trough to the south and a
high to the north. MetO shows a similar setup, albeit with upper easterlies
instead. ECM shows upper easterlies too, as does GEM.
At the surface GFS brings NE'lies and ENE'lies, with a trough over southern
England. NE'lies affect the UK on the MetO run too, with low pressure to the
south. ECM has ENE'lies and low pressure across northern France, as is the
case with GEM.

Evolution to T+168
NE'lies cover the UK on day 6 with ECM as pressure remains low to the south.
The low deepens over France on day 7, bringing stronger NE'lies for the UK.
Day 6 with GFS brings NE'lies due to low pressure to the SSE. NNE'lies cover
the UK on day 7 as a trough persists over SE England.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM NE'lies continue to affect the UK, with high pressure to
the north and a trough to the south. Day 9 sees a col over much of the UK
and by day 10 SSE'lies affect the UK as pressure builds to the east.
GFS shows a SE'ly flow on day 8 as high pressure moves eastwards to the
north. SE'lies persist on day 9 and by day 10 SSW'lies move over the UK as
pressure builds to the south.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
The ensemblesshow a warming trend from tomorrow onwards, with temperatures
heading above average in a week's time.


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