Looks like global warming really has stopped, well in the UK at least

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...HadCET_act.txt

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I wonder when the last time was that there were 12 consectutive
months in the series that were cooler than their equivalent a year before?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Brrrr, I'm going out to buy a warmer coat :-)

Will
--

"Col" wrote in message
...
Looks like global warming really has stopped, well in the UK at least


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...HadCET_act.txt

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I wonder when the last time was that there were 12 consectutive
months in the series that were cooler than their equivalent a year before?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

In article ,
Col writes:
Looks like global warming really has stopped, well in the UK at least

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...HadCET_act.txt

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I wonder when the last time was that there were 12 consectutive
months in the series that were cooler than their equivalent a year before?

Well, we won't know if it's twelve till the end of this month, though I
agree it's highly likely.

I had a look at 1740, but that was spoilt by September. And I couldn't
quite manage 12 consecutive months by starting in late 1739. However 13
consecutive months from Feb 62 to Feb 63 were cooler than a year
previously.
--
John Hall
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts;
but if he will be content to begin with doubts,
he shall end in certainties." Francis Bacon (1561-1626)

On Fri, 18 Apr 2008 09:21:40 +0100, "Col"
wrote:

Looks like global warming really has stopped, well in the UK at least

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...HadCET_act.txt

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I wonder when the last time was that there were 12 consectutive
months in the series that were cooler than their equivalent a year before?

Well I'm as sceptical as the next sceptic but the 10, 5 and 3 year
rolling CET means don't show much sign of a trend change yet. Using
complete calendar years, the last 10 of each (1998 to 2007) a

10 year rolling means:
10.08, 10.10, 10.06, 10.10, 10.18, 10.28, 10.30, 10.30, 10.46, 10.45.

5 year rolling means:
10.17, 10.24, 10.20, 10.35, 10.36, 10.39, 10.36, 10.39, 10.57, 10.54.

3 year rolling means:
10.02, 10.50, 10.42, 10.29, 10.28, 10.34, 10.53, 10.47, 10.58, 10.58.

I am no mathematician but I don't think the present 'pause' is yet any
more significant than any of the others seen over tha last decade. It
will be interesting to see if the rest of this year follows the
pattern of the first four months because if it does, I think the
'pause' will start to look a bit more solid than the others but still
only a pause.

--
Dave

On 18 Apr, 09:21, "Col" wrote:
Looks like global warming really has stopped, well in the UK at least

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...ta/Daily/HadCE...

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I wonder when the last time was that there were 12 consectutive
months in the series that were cooler than their equivalent a year before?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

I just checked my figures for Penzance and April will make 12
consecutive months cooler than it's counterpart 12 months earlier,
which came as a bit of a surprise.

I recorded 15 consecutive months from November 1995 - January 1997
when every month as colder than the same month 12 montts earlier.

Graham
Penzance

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I've just had a look back at my records and using the monthly mean
temperature, Feb 2008 was actually warmer than Feb 2007 but by only 0.1C.
All the other months had a monthly mean temp colder than 12 months previous,
but many by only a small margin.

This did not apply to the mean max though with Feb, Nov & Aug recording mean
max temps higher than the previous year. In fact, looking at the sequence
the monthly mean max temps were remarkably similar, it was the mean mins
that were significantly lower than the previous 12 months, probably
represented by the more settled nature (and hence colder nights) of autumn
and winter 2007/8 when compared with 2006/7.

I think this CET sequence will end in June & July, unless of course we get a
summer as horrendous as last year's washout.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Apr 19, 10:24*am, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

I've just had a look back at my records and using the monthly mean
temperature, Feb 2008 was actually warmer than Feb 2007 but by only 0.1C.
All the other months had a monthly mean temp colder than 12 months previous,
but many by only a small margin.

This did not apply to the mean max though with Feb, Nov & Aug recording mean
max temps higher than the previous year. In fact, looking at the sequence
the monthly mean max temps were remarkably similar, it was the mean mins
that were significantly lower than the previous 12 months, probably
represented by the more settled nature (and hence colder nights) of autumn
and winter 2007/8 when compared with 2006/7.

I think this CET sequence will end in June & July, unless of course we get a
summer as horrendous as last year's washout.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Yes, the likelihood would increase! However, in terms of temperature,
last summer was not dreadful (in terms of precipitation, dreariness,
lack of sunshine and downright depressing awfulness, oh goodness yes!
Especially for particular areas of the UK, like NE Scotland; the SW
didn't fare as badly as most other areas.). It wasn't that far off
being an average summer, if one talks strictly about temperatures
alone. In this warming trend, an average summer, as regards
temperatures, has been unusual in the last decade. That may be why I
look back and think of last summer as "cool and wet", when in fact it
was closer to "average and wet!" It my perception of summers over the
last 20 years, which leads me to think "cool". If the warming trend
continues and I see no reason why it shouldn't, the likelihood of this
summer and its constituent months continuing the trend would be low.

Col's interesting sequence could actually end before the summer. Last
May's CET of 11.98C, by Philip's continuing Manley series, has been
beaten 10 times in the 20 years since 1988. It wasn't beaten at all in
the 14 years before 1988. ttp://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

With a continuing UK warming trend, I'd put the odds at less than
evens (ie odds on) that Col's sequence will end in May. The chances of
it ending this April are, not surprisingly, very close to zero!

Paul

On 18 Apr, 09:21, "Col" wrote:

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

Well spotted Col!

In Coventry, our data also shows this trend from last May.

Looking back through our records to 1892, this hasn't been expereinced
before.

8 months was the highest sequence before this from March to October
1894, and February to September 1934.

John's 1962-63 sereis was spoilt here by June 1962 which was warmer
than June 1961 by the looks of it.

Mind you this was a tedious exercise!!

Steve Jackson
Bablake Weather Station
Coventry UK
www.bablakeweather.co.uk

"Steve J" wrote in message
...
On 18 Apr, 09:21, "Col" wrote:

Every month since May 2007 has been cooler than it's counterpart
12 months previously, and I confidently forecast April 2008 to
follow that trend!

Well spotted Col!

I only discovered it when I was looking to see how cold this
April might be in relation to the historical record, and then
for some reason my mind wandered....
Currently the Metcheck CET is 6.8C, a negative anomoly of 1.3C.
Possibly the coldest since 1989 and I remember that one as being
a wretched month!
Still, an excellent summer followed, I believe it was the sunniest on
record.

In Coventry, our data also shows this trend from last May.

Looking back through our records to 1892, this hasn't been expereinced
before.

8 months was the highest sequence before this from March to October
1894, and February to September 1934.

John's 1962-63 sereis was spoilt here by June 1962 which was warmer
than June 1961 by the looks of it.

Mind you this was a tedious exercise!!

I'm sure it was

From the replies so far, it seems that such an event although very rare,
is not unprecedented.
I hope the sequence comes to an end next month though, I would like
some warmth now!
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

From the replies so far, it seems that such an event although very rare,
is not unprecedented.
I hope the sequence comes to an end next month though, I would like
some warmth now!

Too right! Warmth is needed.

My tomato and cucumber seedlings in the greenhouse were doing fine until
about a week ago, but those cold nights have changed everything and they are
looking very sorry for themselves now and have stopped growing, especially
the cucumbers which are suffering from leaf curl due to the cold.

What a difference to last year! By now I was having to put the toms and cucs
outside because they had taken over the greenhouse and I needed the room for
other stuff.

This April has been quite exceptional compared to the last 5 years or so
because of the persistently cold nights which seems to do the most damage.
One or two chilly nights are OK but we've had a run from the 6th to the 18th
which has included 4 air frosts (7th - 10th) and not one min temp above
4.4C, mostly around 2C.

And what a cold, miserable day today.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk